“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
The 153rd Open Championship tees off this week from Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland, and I’ve got a few wagers I’m making before the tournament gets underway.
Let’s dive into what I’m eyeing at the moment.
Outright and Top Finish Markets
Viktor Hovland outright winner, Top 10, Top 20
This has long felt to me like the major Hovland was most likely to win. The greens at The Open are not as slick as the ones Hovland faces in the U.S. Open or Masters and that’s huge for him, since that’s the weakest part of his game. Coming off a third-place finish at Oakmont where he very easily could have won, it seems like he’s built up a bit of battle scars and is close to breaking through. Remember, he was the 54-hole leader at The Open in 2022 and had a couple of other top-15 finishes in the last few years. If you’re looking for someone other than Scottie, Rory or Rahm, he’s a great place to land.
PICKS:
Viktor Hovland (+3000) to win outright
Viktor Hovland (+280) Top-10 finish
Viktor Hovland (+130) Top-20 finish
Viktor Hovland of Norway is an option for those looking to fade the star players heading into The Open.
Sepp Straka Top 20, Top 30
Surprisingly, Straka has missed all three cuts in majors this year, but this seems to be the one he’s played best in lately, finishing T-22 last year and T-2 in 2023 behind Brian Harman. His top-10 in Scotland last week should have him ready for a good effort this week.
PICKS:
Sepp Straka (+150) Top-20 finish
Sepp Straka (+105) Top-30 finish
Sepp Straka of Austria has failed to make a cut in any of the first three majors this season.
Matt Fitzpatrick Top 20, Top 30
Maybe it’s been the change on the bag, but whatever it is has resulted in Fitzpatrick playing his best golf since winning the U.S. Open. He hasn’t missed a cut in an individual event since before the Masters, which is also his last finish outside the top 40. Sure, nobody is going to confuse the tracks at the Travelers or Rocket Classic (where he posted top-20s) for major-level courses, but that T-4 last week at the Renaissance sure has a lot of people excited over his chances this week.
PICKS:
Matt Fitzpatrick (+150) Top-20 finish
Matt Fitzpatrick (+120) Top-30 finish
Padraig Harrington top 30
Harrington has made the cut in each of the last two years at The Open. He finished T-22 last year and in 2022, he actually opened with a 69 before shooting 78 in the second round. At a course he’s familiar with, and with bad weather looming, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s playing the weekend and posting a fringe finish.
PICK: Padraig Harrington (+285) Top-30 finish
Cam Young Top 20, Top 30
Everyone’s favorite non-winner posted another top-5 finish at a major last month at Oakmont — that’s three now and six top-10s all told. Two have come at The Open, so he clearly isn’t affected by the conditions. I’ll back him again to play well in a major here.
PICKS:
Cam Young (+260) Top-20 finish
Cam Young (+165) Top-30 finish
Chris Gotterup Top 20, Top 30
We should have seen the win coming at some point. Actually, here’s a funny story: I bet Gotterup to win the John Deere the previous week, so I was a week early. In his last 10 tourneys, he’s missed one cut (Canada) and has five top-20s, with his worst finish in the other four tourneys he made the cut being 28th. I think he’s mispriced in the derivative markets, including Make/Miss Cut and I’d be surprised if he didn’t play well this week. Remember, he played very well at Oakmont, posting two sub-70 rounds and finishing 23rd.
PICKS:
Chris Gotterup (+250) Top-20 finish
Chris Gotterup (+140) Top-30 finish
Chris Gotterup plays a shot during a practice round prior to The 153rd Open Championship at Royal Portrush Golf Club.
Matchups
Padraig Harrington vs. Phil Mickelson
Mickelson has missed all three cuts in majors this year and seven of 10 since the runner-up finish out of nowhere in the 2023 Masters. He hasn’t even shot even par in a major championship round since the opening round of the 2023 U.S. Open. That’s 21 straight rounds over par.
PICK: Padraig Harrington (-125) vs. Phil Mickelson
Chris Gotterup vs. Ben Griffin
Griffin’s red-hot run came to an end with a missed cut at the John Deere, but maybe the little break will treat him well. He’s posted top-10s in both the U.S. Open and PGA Championship but now faces a different challenge at Portrush. In his two Open appearances, he’s missed the cut both times and went 79-74 last year.
PICK: Chris Gotterup (+105) vs. Ben Griffin
Viktor Hovland vs. Collin Morikawa
Something just seems off with Morikawa this year. His play around and on the green has been poor, and after a second round 76 and MC last week, I’m not sure I want to back him here. He’s missed the cut two of the last three years here since winning the Claret Jug in 2021.
PICK: Viktor Hovland (-115) vs. Collin Morikawa
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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