Currently, COVID-19 cases are on the rise in half of U.S. states, data show. An uptick in transmission fueled by highly contagious new variants is causing an increasing number of Americans to come down with sore throats, fever and other COVID symptoms — just in time for peak summer travel season.
As of July 8, COVID-19 infections are either growing or likely growing in 25 states, declining in zero states and stable in 21 states, according to forecasting models from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Currently, cases are rising the most in the South and West, with states like Florida, Alabama, Texas and California seeing some of the largest increases, per the latest models.
Although the CDC says the level of COVID viral activity in wastewater is “low” nationally, at least eight states are reporting “high” or “moderate” levels.
Experts say a lack of data is making it harder to track COVID-19 in real time, but that there are clear indicators that transmission is ramping up, and cases are expected to keep rising this summer.
The virus that causes COVID-19, called SARS-CoV-2, continues to mutate, giving rise to highly transmissible new variants that have evolved to better evade immunity.
These include NB.1.8.1 aka “Nimbus,” which causes a painful “razor blade throat.” Nimbus is now the dominant variant in the U.S., accounting for 43% of cases as of June 21, per CDC data.
However, a new variant with a similar cloud-themed nickname, XFG, aka “Stratus,” is spreading rapidly worldwide and causing an increasing proportion of cases in the U.S. Stratus is currently the third most prevalent strain nationally.
Is the U.S. facing a COVID-19 summer wave? What are the signs of the current COVID variants? Here’s what to know.
Is there a summer COVID wave in the U.S.?
The current rise in COVID-19 cases marks the beginning of an expected summer wave in the U.S., Dr. William Schaffner, professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, tells TODAY.com.
“Over the past four years, there have been two waves of COVID each year. It’s like a two-hump camel. There’s the summer wave that abates in the fall, and then the winter wave,” says Schaffner.
COVID-19 activity tends to ramp up in the mid-summer, when travel peaks and people are increasingly gathering indoors in the air-conditioning.
“We have been anticipating this rise, and this is just about the time when we would expect to see it,” Schaffner says.
“Every year (since 2020) around Independence Day, we are either already at very high transmission or transmission is really starting to pick up. To me, the situation we’re in is not very surprising,” Michael Hoerger, Ph.D., associate professor at Tulane University School of Medicine, tells TODAY.com.
Historically, the summer wave in the U.S. has peaked in late July or August, but COVID activity can persist well into September.
As people’s immunity from prior infection and vaccination wanes, and mutated variants like Nimbus and Stratus take hold, experts warn that many Americans will be susceptible to infection this summer.
“How large this (wave) will be remains to be determined,” says Schaffner. It’s hard to predict whether the summer 2025 COVID wave will be average, larger or smaller compare to previous years. “I think all of those are possibilities,” adds Hoerger.
As of July 14, weekly test positivity is just 3.1%, per CDC data.Comparatively, it was 18% during the peak of last summer’s wave.
“The data quality is pretty poor at the moment. That makes it tougher to know what’s going on. … The situation could be a lot worse than what people are seeing,” explains Hoerger.
WastewaterSCAN, which monitors diseases through municipal wastewater systems, reports that national COVID levels are currently in the “high” category.
Hoerger, who directs the Pandemic Mitigation Collective, uses the PMC COVID forecasting model, which estimates that there are an average of 324,000 new daily infections in the U.S. as of July 14.
Where is COVID-19 rising in the U.S.?
The Western, Southern and Southeastern U.S. are currently seeing the highest levels of COVID-19 activity.
According to CDC’s COVID-19 epidemic trend forecasting, cases are predicted to be growing the most in the following states:
- Alabama
- California
- Florida
- Hawaii
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Maryland
- Mississippi
- Ohio
- Texas
- Virginia
CDC wastewater data shows similar trends. As of July 16, the states reporting the highest levels of COVID activity in wastewater also include Florida and Alabama, as well as Alaska, Colorado, Nevada and South Carolina.
What is the XFG, aka Stratus Variant?
In June, the World Health Organization classified XFG as a “variant under monitoring.” XFG is a recombinant, or a hybrid of two existing COVID lineages. It originates from LF.7 and LP.8.1.2, which are both omicron sub-variants, per the WHO.
XFG shares similar mutations to NB.1.8.1, but it has additional changes in its spike protein, which may affect its ability to escape antibodies against COVID-19.
“All these new variants are cousins in the same omicron family, (it’s) not some brand new, serious variant,” says Schaffner.
The public heath risk posed by XFG is “low,” the WHO says, and there’s no evidence Stratus causes more severe illness.
So far, Stratus has been detected in at least 38 countries. It’s also spreading quickly in the United States.
During the two-week period ending June 21, XFG accounted for 14% of cases in the U.S., following behind the dominant NB.1.8.1 variant and LP.8.1, per CDC data. However, the CDC said on its website that precision in its reporting is currently “low,” so this is expected to change, the experts note.
The CDC has not published data on regional spread of XFG, but sequences uploaded to the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) database show that XFG has been detected in at least 25 states.
It’s unclear whether Nimbus, Stratus or another variant will drive the summer wave. It will most likely be some combination of variants, the experts note. “There could also be more variants percolating than what we currently realize,” adds Hoerger.
The new variant is called NB.1.8.1. It arrives as the United States’ official stance on COVID-19 vaccination is changing.
Symptoms of COVID summer 2025
The Stratus and Nimbus variants appear to cause symptoms similar to those caused by other omicron strains. These include:
- Sore throat
- Fever or chills
- Cough
- Headache
- Congestion
- Fatigue
- Shortness of breath
- New loss of sense of smell or taste
- Nausea, vomiting or diarrhea
“The symptoms of COVID could look like a lot of different things,” says Hoerger, adding that this is why testing is still important.
If you test positive for COVID-19, you can seek prompt treatment with anti-virals, which are especially important for high-risk groups, says Schaffer. These include people over the age of 65, those who are immunocompromised or have underlying conditions.
COVID vaccines
Vaccination is the best way to prevent severe illness and complications from COVID-19.
Currently-approved COVID vaccines are expected to remain effective against the XFG and NB.1.8.1 variants.
The latest 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccines released last fall are still available and recommended for most adults, the CDC says.
“If somebody hasn’t been vaccinated in about a year, they should definitely go and get it, because they may need it for this wave,” says Hoerger.
High-risk individuals who were vaccinated in the fall or winter may need an additional dose. “If you’re high-risk, please get your COVID vaccine to carry you through the summer,” says Schaffner.
The 2025-2026 updated COVID vaccines, which will target LP.8.1, are expected to be released this fall. However, recent changes to vaccination guidelines have made it harder for some groups to get the shot, including children
If you have questions about getting the COVID-19 vaccine, talk to your doctor.
How to protect yourself from COVID-19
During a summer wave, there are simple actions people can take to protect themselves and others from COVID-19, the experts say.
- Stay up to date on COVID vaccinations.
- Test if you have symptoms or COVID exposure.
- Isolate when you’re sick.
- Wear an N95 mask in crowded, indoor spaces.
- Practice social distancing.
HHS Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr. posted a video on social media where he, along with NIH Director Jay Bhattacharya and FDA Commissioner Marty Makary, announced that the CDC would no longer recommend the COVID vaccine for healthy children and pregnant women.
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