Tropical Depression Two marks start of hurricane season

The KSAT Weather Authority team has been monitoring an area of low pressure in the Gulf for the last few days. It moved into the Bay of Campeche early Saturday morning and has gradually become more organized throughout the day.

Known as Invest 91L, the disturbance has now developed into Tropical Depression Two, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). If it strengthens, it will be named Barry.

Earlier Saturday, most of the thunderstorm activity was concentrated on the southern side of the circulation. However, new satellite imagery and data from the Air Force confirmed the presence of a closed circulation.

Due to the observed improvements in structure and sustained convection, the NHC has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Two on Saturday afternoon.

Forecast track and intensity

As of the latest update, the depression is moving west-northwest and a general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. The system is forecast to make landfall along the eastern coast of Mexico late Sunday into early Monday.

While the environment is currently limiting rapid development, the mid-level moisture and warm sea surface temperatures will likely allow the depression to strengthen slowly.

It is expected to become a tropical storm before making landfall in Mexico. Once inland, the terrain of central Mexico is expected to weaken and dissipate the system by early next week.

Impacts to Mexico and potential effects on Texas

The Mexican government has issued a tropical storm warning for parts of the country’s Gulf coastline. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and the risk of flash flooding are expected in northeastern Mexico as the system moves inland.

While direct tropical storm impacts are not currently expected in Texas, residents along the Gulf Coast, particularly in South Texas, should stay informed.

Moisture from this system could enhance rainfall across southern and southeastern Texas early next week, depending on how much of the storm’s energy or remnant moisture is able to shift northward after landfall.

We’ll keep you posted on the latest and stay weather-aware and prepared.