Kerr County, like much of the Texas Hill Country, sits in “Flash Flood Alley” — one of the most flood-prone regions in North America.
KERR COUNTY, Texas — A deadly combination of geography, weather patterns and recent drought conditions contributed to the rapid and dangerous rise of the Guadalupe River the night of July 3 into the early hours of Independence Day.
Kerr County, like much of the Texas Hill Country, sits in “Flash Flood Alley” — one of the most flood-prone regions in North America. The area’s steep terrain and rocky soil prevent water from absorbing into the ground, increasing runoff during heavy rainfall. On top of that, the region had been experiencing a prolonged drought, which further reduced the ground’s ability to soak up water.
That night, the atmosphere was primed for extreme rainfall. Tropical moisture from two distant storms — the remnants of Hurricane Flossie in the Pacific and remnants of Tropical Storm Barry in the Atlantic — combined with the usual summer humidity from the Gulf of Mexico.
A slow-moving area of low pressure developed, tapping into all of that moisture and dumping torrential rain over the Hill Country.
By the end of the night, 12 inches of rain had fallen over Kerr County. In just 45 minutes, the Guadalupe River rose 27 feet — a staggering and dangerous surge.
Many described the river’s rise as a “wall of water.” But to understand just how much water fell, it’s helpful to put the numbers in perspective.
Twelve inches of rain comes out to approximately 120 billion gallons of water that fell on Kerr County during that 6- to 8-hour window.
Let’s compare that to something more familiar: Niagara Falls.
- 45 million gallons of water flow over Niagara Falls every minute
- That adds up to 2.7 billion gallons per hour
- And 65 billion gallons per day
In less than eight hours, Kerr County saw nearly double the volume of water that flows over Niagara Falls in an entire day.
The Guadalupe River’s rise wasn’t just dramatic — it was the result of a rare but dangerous convergence of natural factors. It’s a sobering reminder of how quickly flash flooding can develop in this part of the country.
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