MARIA BARTIROMO (FOX BUSINESS ANCHOR): 73,000 jobs, 73,000 jobs, created in the month of July, the number just coming out.
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CHARLES PAYNE (FOX BUSINESS HOST): And that’s total.
BARTIROMO: Four point two percent is the unemployment rate, right in line with expectations. Here are the numbers: For the month July, jobs came in 73,000 that was lower than the expectation, which called for 110,000 jobs. The unemployment rate right in step with expectations at 4.2%. Steve Moore, your reaction.
STEPHEN MOORE (GUEST): Look. I think this is all a result of — this disappointing number — is a result of all the turmoil over tariffs and and the trade wars. And that’s sort of good news and bad news because guess what? In just the last few weeks, Trump has racked off a lot of victories here. As he gets more victories with the Europeans, with Japan, with the UK, I think that’s gonna settle things. And then, that kind of turmoil will over. So I think, I think that — this is kind of a blip, and, and so I’m kinda I’m still very bullish on the US economy, but this is a disappointing number. I’d love to see, what the number was for private sector, as John was saying, is it private sector, or government? I want to see the government employment number down because remember, under Biden —
PAYNE: 83,000
MOORE: So much of the job creation was in the government sector.
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PAYNE: I want to push back on it, I think this is more about the Federal Reserve.
BARTIROMO: Yeah.
PAYNE: Again, we’ve got a bifurcated economy. The Fed is — is they have a regressive approach here, right? They’re still trying to clamp down on this economy, but it’s not working, it’s hurting 70% of the folks out there. Look at delinquencies, look at all the things that are hurting average household, I think — and also small businesses. They’re coming into this year, the biggest question was how they even refinance. We’re talking about financing government, then how do we help the small businesses out there? There are two economies, the Fed’s looking at the wealthiest folks out there and thinking it means everyone. I think that’s hurting jobs market more than anything else.
BARTIROMO: Mmhmm, yeah, it’s a great point. I agree that this report is so critical for the Federal Reserve’s next move. Stephanie, how do you read things?
STEPHANIE POMBOY (MACROMAVENS PRESIDENT): Well, I’m just stunned at another number in this report, and that is the downward revisions to the June figure, from 147,000 to just 14,000. So, looking over the last three months, we’ve got 73,000 in July, 14,000 in June, and 19,000 in May. Those are incredibly weak headline numbers, and that’s the total, not just private jobs, so this is a very soft report. And I guess what I’m really blown away by July generally is a report where the seasonals are such that you can surprise on the upside very easily. Because a million people, roughly, drop out of the labor force with the school year, you know the school vacations. So that sets a very low seasonal bar for the data to clear, and clearly we tripped over the bar. So this is a very weak report.
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POMBOY: And I guess it, you know, certainly strengthens the argument materially for the Fed to cut rates. It’s interesting, because one presumes they’ve had at least some of the preliminary components of this report when they were in their meeting on Wednesday and made the decision, they probably had an early look at this. So, that probably is one of the reasons why you had the two dissents, but amazing that Powell stood firm despite that in the face of this data.
BARTIROMO: Well it’s a great point you make, because these downward revisions show a lot more about this economy in the last couple of months. And if we’re learning now in, you know, the first day of August, for the month of July, and the month in June that things were weakening, Jay Powell had access to that. How is it possible that he went forward and did not cut interest rates, even as he saw all of this data, Stephanie? Yes, that’s why we had two dissenters, Miki Bowman and Christopher Waller.
POMBOY: I think that Trump kind of put him in a position where he had to stand firm, otherwise he would look like a total pushover. So ironically, by putting all that pressure on him, the president may have actually reinforced Powell’s determination to stand firm in the face of data that clearly indicate that he should have been moving in the other direction. But as you said, Powell’s always too late. That’s not just a slight against Jay Powell. The Fed is always too late. They always overstay accommodation and create some kind of massive bubble. And then when that bubble bursts, they act like they’re shocked that anything adverse happened, and they run in, and they put way too much stimulus there. And the next think you know, we’ve got another correction — recession on our hands. And so it’s either too tight or two easy, they just can’t seem to get it right. And I think it is definitely time to do a deep review of the Federal Reserve, and look at really, as Charles has talked about, the incredible damage that Federal Reserve’s policy has done to the middle class of this country. I mean, it is responsible, in my view, for this yawning gap between the high end and the low end, and with each serial monetary bailout, they create, you know, they expand that wedge even wider.
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