Bookmakers got what they wanted from the Gold Cup odds market: USA vs. Mexico, in Houston, in a championship showdown capping the Fourth of July weekend.
At 7 p.m. ET Sunday on FOX, the U.S. Men’s National Team and El Tri square off.
“This is definitely the match we want. I’d say Mexico is the USA’s biggest rival,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said Friday evening.
Shelton helps break down Gold Cup betting odds for the championship match.
Mexico Moves To Favorite
On Wednesday, Team USA got two Diego Luna goals in the first 15 minutes and made that hold up in a 2-1 semifinal victory over Guatemala. Mexico followed with a 1-0 victory over Honduras.
Then BetMGM Nevada posted the three-way odds for Sunday’s title tilt, declaring it a toss-up: Mexico +170/USA +170, with the draw at +200.
But our neighbors to the south have since moved to the favorite.
“Ticket-wise, there’s literally one more ticket on the U.S. than on Mexico. But money-wise, it’s 3/1 on Mexico. Draw only has a handful of tickets,” Shelton said.
With that action, Mexico is now a modest +145 favorite, with the U.S. at +190 and draw at +210. What that means: If you put a $100 bet on Team USA, and the Americans win, then you profit $190 (total payout $290) if the U.S. wins within 90 minutes plus injury time.
And that’s important to note.
If you were to bet the U.S. on the three-way market, that bet doesn’t extend to overtime/penalty kicks. So if the U.S. went on to win in overtime or on penalties, your ticket would be a loser.
To avoid that possibility, you might want to consider the two-way “To Lift The Trophy” market, in which Mexico is -135 and USA is even money (+100). Then your bet is live, regardless of whether the game ends in regulation or goes to overtime/penalty kicks.
Tie Goes To The Sportsbook
As is often the case in soccer, and particularly in high-profile international matches, BetMGM Nevada would love to see the U.S. and Mexico tied after 90 minutes plus injury time.
“By kickoff, we’re gonna need a draw. That will end up being our best-case scenario,” Shelton said. “Mexico will be just as heavily bet as USA.”
So, ostensibly, bookmakers are rooting for Sunday’s match to go to overtime, and even to penalty kicks if possible. That’s certainly what Caesars Sports is hoping for, along with a win from the Red, White & Blue on this Fourth of July weekend.
“Draws are always a book-friendly result,” Caesars head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike said. “The U.S. ultimately getting the job done, preferably on penalties, would be the most favorable for the book.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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