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Welcome to Week 3 of the NFL season! Hopefully you are 2-0 in all of your leagues and have been able to avoid the injury bug.
As I write this on Thursday morning, here is the list of players that are currently on the injury report with fantasy football relevancy:
That doesn’t include Aaron Jones Sr., Joe Burrow, and others that are on injured reserve.
Obviously, make sure you are checking your lineups around 4pm eastern each day because that is typically when injury reports are being released by majority of the teams. You can always search through Twitter as well to find medical analysis and practice updates from beat reporters attending practice.
Last week I had some internet issues and wasn’t able to share my best starts and sits, but I think that issue is fixed. Below are the players that I think will outperform their projections for week three!
1. QB Start’em – Caleb Williams
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I want all the offensive players in this game on Sunday between the Bears and Cowboys. It has the second highest over/under on the week.
Williams is currently ranked QB10 in points scored in ESPN standard scoring leagues. Dallas gave up 24.28 points to Jalen Hurts in week one (18.2 because of his rushing) and 30.3 points to Russell Wilson in week two.
Dallas has, shockingly, struggles at getting pressure on the quarterback (rank 20th in pass rush win rate) and because of it, their secondary is getting shredded. What doesn’t help is the fact that Trevon Diggs is working his way back into a full-time role and DaRon Bland is injured.
The second-year pro looked a lot better within the pocket against the Detroit Lions last week. Williams has eclipsed 25 rush yards in each of the first two weeks.
I’ve got Williams as by QB6 this week over guys like Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, and Justin Herbert.
2. QB Sit’em – Bo Nix
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This was a hard week to find a QB to sit. I think there a lot of good matchups for some quarterbacks, but out of those that are most likely starting in your lineup, Bo Nix is the one I settled on.
Los Angeles has been fantastic defensively in two weeks. Yes, Patrick Mahomes recorded 26.1 points in week one, but that’s because he rushed for 57 yards and a touchdown (11.7 points). Nix has rushed for 38 yards combined through two weeks.
He’s coming off a week where he tossed for three touchdowns, but this Chargers defense has surrendered two touchdowns in two games. Nix has also thrown three interceptions this season and leads the league in percentage of passes that are deemed off target (22.9%).
Los Angeles is going to force this Broncos offense to methodically move down the field and not give up many chunk plays. Nix’s output this week is going to rely on his ability to stay patient and not get greedy by trying to force the ball downfield to Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims Jr. or Troy Franklin.
3. RB Start’em – Tony Pollard
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Tennessee’s offense through two weeks has been atrocious, but in fantasy football we are just trying to find players that have a solid matchup with opportunity.
Pollard checks in with 38 attempts (4th most) and 152 rush yards (6th). The problem with Pollard is that he hasn’t gotten a ton of looks in the passing game. That could change this weekend because the Colts are giving up 5.0 yards per carry.
What has been encouraging for Pollard is that it appears he has fully shaken that fibula injury at the end of 2023. He has forced 20 missed tackles (most in NFL) and is coming off a week where he forced 14 missed tackles.
With the sketchy linebacker play for the Colts, Pollard could be in store for a big game for the Titans. He recorded 93 rush yards and a touchdown last year against Indianapolis.
4. RB Sit’em – Kyren Williams
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Kyren Williams is a guy that I would try to sell if I had him in any of my leagues.
What has made the former Notre Dame Fighting Irish back a lineup lock is his ability to find the end zone. Last week, Blake Corum had a more efficient game and found the end zone against Tennessee. Sean McVay stated after the game, “I think what you’re looking for is something around a 65/35 ratio for those guys. I think you want Kyren playing about two-thirds of the time, and Blake playing the other third.”
Reminder, the Rams did select Corum in the third round of the 2024 draft. It’s not like he was a fifth or sixth-round pick with limited college production.
Williams is averaging 3.8 yards per carry and doesn’t break off long runs. Last season he only had two games with rushes over 20 yards.
This week the Rams are taking on the Eagles. Javonte Williams rushed for 54 yards on 15 attempts (3.6 average) in week one without Jalen Carter. In week two, Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco combined to rush for 53 yards on 18 attempts (2.9 average).
I would look elsewhere this week, if you can. Consider Javonte Williams, D’Andre Swift, Jaylen Warren, or Jordan Mason over Williams this week.
5. WR Start’em – Rome Odunze
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As I said above, I am starting nearly anyone that plays for the Cowboys or the Bears this week.
The only players that I would NOT start in this game are the defenses, Luther Burden III, Coleston Loveland, and Cole Kmet. George Pickens is due for a big game for Dallas; he’s a fringe starter depending on how many teams are in your league and your roster configuration.
Rome Odunze has been the biggest breakout through two weeks in the NFL. He tallied 13 catches for 165 yards and 3 touchdowns. When the Bears pass in the red zone, it has been in the direction of their former first-round pick.
Odunze has been targeted on 30.7% of Williams pass attempts, which ranks 11th in all pass catchers. Even if Bland suits up for Dallas, he won’t be 100%.
Lock the former Washington Husky in your lineup and reap the benefits of doing so.
6. WR Sit’em – Chris Olave
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Olave was one of my late round sleepers because of his talent and the amount of targets he should get weekly with how bad the Saints are and having a creative offensive minded head coach calling plays.
However, I do not like Olave this week against the Seattle Seahawks.
The former Ohio State Buckeye has struggled with efficiency despite being third in the league in targets (23). He’s averaging 8.3 yards per catch (99th in the NFL) and has exactly 54 receiving yards in each game this season.
He draws a very difficult matchup this week with or without Devon Witherspoon. Seattle has allowed the fewest fantasy points to receivers, and the second fewest to perimeter receivers.
Josh Jobe will likely shadow Olave, when he is on the perimeter. Jobe has been targeted nine times this season, has allowed two receptions for eight yards, surrendered three yards after the catch, and has one interception. Per Next Gen Stats, in his last six games, opposing pass catchers have only recorded 20.8 points (3.5 points per game) on 23 targets as the nearest defender.
7. TE Start’em – Zach Ertz
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I am trying to avoid the obvious names when it comes to suggestions on start’em and sit’em, but despite being TE3 through two weeks, Ertz is only being started in 35% of leagues on ESPN.
This decision should not be impacted by whether Jayden Daniels suits up or not. Marcus Mariota started a game last year for Washington and got extended run in another. Ertz caught a touchdown in both games from Mariota.
Right now, McLaurin and Daniels are not on the same page because of the lack of practice reps together leading up to the start of the season. Plus, Daniels missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Austin Ekeler is out for the season, thus leading to some more opportunities for the 34-year-old.
With how thin the position is, Ertz can provide give you some added production to give you an edge this week over your opponent, assuming they don’t have Trey McBride, Tyler Warren, or Brock Bowers.
8. TE Sit’em – Mark Andrews
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Last week, I had Mark Andrews on the sit’em, and he’s back on this list again.
It basically comes down to this, I need to see Lamar Jackson start targeting him again. Through two weeks, Andrews has 2 catches for 7 yards on 4 targets.
What doesn’t help Andrews either is that Detroit allows the fewest fantasy points per game to players at that position and the third worst catch rate (64.9%) since the begging of last season according to ESPN.
Depending on how involved, or lack thereof, he is this week, he might make the column next week on players to drop.
9. Defense Start’em – Seattle Seahawks
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Mike Macdonald’s defense has been one of the underappreciated groups through two weeks of the season.
The Seahawks held Christian McCaffrey to 69 yards rushing on 22 attempts (3.1 per carry) and recorded two turnovers in their week one loss. Last week against Pittsburgh, Aaron Rodgers threw two interceptions and got sacked three times.
Now they get a matchup against the second worst offense in the NFL, the New Orleans Saints. Spencer Rattler hasn’t thrown a pick and has only been sacked four times through two games, but he’s due to throw one against this ball hawking secondary.
Great Job Eddie Garrison & the Team @ Black America Web Source link for sharing this story.
