Tropical Storm Jerry was named by the National Hurricane Center, or NHC, at 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday, Oct. 7. At that time, Jerry was located 1,315 miles (2,120 km) east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands, headed west at 24 mph (39 km/h). Jerry had top winds of 45 mph (75 km/h) and a central pressure of 1006 mb. NHC said it may issue a Tropical Storm Watch for the northern Leeward Islands later on Tuesday. Jerry poses no direct threat to the continental U.S.
Forecast for Jerry
Satellite images on Tuesday showed Jerry was well organized, with plenty of spin and an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. The system had favorable conditions for development, with moderate wind shear of 10-15 knots, warm ocean temperatures of 29 degrees Celsius (84°F), and an adequately moist atmosphere (a midlevel relative humidity of 60%). These favorable conditions are likely to remain in place through Friday, and Jerry has strong model support for steady intensification through Friday.
Steering currents favor a slowdown in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest for Jerry by Wednesday, which would likely take the core of the system a few hundred miles to the northeast of the Leeward Islands on Thursday night and Friday. However, it is too early to rule out a track through the islands, and Jerry will be capable of bringing heavy rains and gusty winds there even if the center of the system passes to the northeast. The Google DeepMind ensemble forecast — which has been an excellent performer this year — shows that a particularly close call for the northern Leeward Islands will occur on Thursday and Friday (Fig. 2).
Intensity forecasts for Jerry by the time it reaches the islands are all over the place, varying from a tropical storm to a major hurricane. For now, NHC is predicting that Jerry will peak as a Cat 1 with 90 mph winds on Friday when it makes its closest pass to the Leeward Islands. After Jerry passes the Leeward Islands, Bermuda is likely to be the only other land area that needs to be concerned with the system.
Jerry’s formation date of Oct. 7 comes over a month later than the 1991-2020 average Sep. 4 formation date of the season’s 10th named storm. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season to date has had 10 named storms, four hurricanes (Category 5 Erin, Category 4 Gabrielle, Category 5 Humberto, and Category 2 Imelda), and three major hurricanes. The 1991-2020 averages by this point in the season are 11.6 named storms, 5.6 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes. So although we are below average for named storms and hurricanes, the fact that we have had an above-average number of major hurricanes has pushed the accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, index close to average (90% of average). Typically, about 20% of hurricane season activity remains after October 5.
Bob Henson contributed to this post.
Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under a Creative Commons license.
Great Job Jeff Masters & the Team @ Yale Climate Connections Source link for sharing this story.
