When will the first “real” cold front arrive in San Antonio?

SAN ANTONIO – If you’ve been sweating through another unseasonably warm October in San Antonio, you’re probably asking the same question as everyone else: When is the first real cold front going to arrive?

We’re talking about the kind that doesn’t just knock the highs down by a few degrees but brings a lasting taste of fall — maybe even a reason to break out a hoodie.

Let’s dig into the data and climate history to find out what the Alamo City can expect this year.

WHEN DO COLD FRONTS TRADITIONALLY HIT SA?

San Antonio has already experienced a couple of “cold fronts” this fall, but they’ve mostly been disappointing.

A few weeks ago, a front brought a brief dip in temperatures, but most stalled or weakened before reaching the city. However, some temperature drops are largely driven by cloud cover and rain, not a true surge of cooler, drier air.

When locals ask about the “first real cold front,” here’s what they usually mean:

• A temperature drop of at least 15 degrees from one day to the next

• A noticeable shift in humidity and wind direction

• Morning lows dipping into the 50s or even 40s

• A cooldown that lasts more than a day or two

In other words, not just a break in the heat but a real seasonal shift. The result? Our average first cold front is Sept. 23.

WHY IT MATTERS

This long-term data helps account for natural climate patterns like La Niña or El Niño, which can affect how quickly or slowly fall arrives in South Texas. But remember, that’s an average. In some years, summer lingers longer. And, in others, fall barges in early.

The Oct. 19 date is especially interesting as it’s the average last day San Antonio hits 90°F or higher, based on a 30-year climate record (1994–2024).

FALL IS (PROBABLY) ALMOST HERE

As of early October, we’re still stuck in the 90s. The highs have barely budged, and while a few weak fronts have brushed the area, none have delivered that full fall feeling.

San Antonio is close to its seasonal tipping point. Statistically, we’re just days away from that first real cold front — the kind that cools the city down by 15 degrees, brings dry air and sticks around for more than just a day.

So hang tight, San Antonio. The heat may still be hanging on, but hoodie season is nearly here.