Historic Hurricane Melissa roared ashore over western Jamaica at 1 p.m. EDT Oct. 28 as a high-end Category 5 storm with 185 mph (295 km/h) winds and a central pressure of 892 mb. This ties Melissa with the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 in the Florida Keys as the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane on record, for both wind and pressure. Melissa is just the 20th landfalling Cat 5 on record in the Atlantic basin. According to a rapid attribution study by Climate Central, climate change made Melissa’s winds about 10 mph (16 km/h) stronger.
Strongest Atlantic Category 5 landfalling hurricanes by wind
1) Melissa, Oct. 28, 2025: Jamaica, 185 mph, 892 mb
1) Labor Day Hurricane, Sep. 3, 1935: Florida Keys, 185 mph, 892 mb
1) Hurricane Dorian, Sep. 1, 2019: Bahamas (Abaco Island), 185 mph, 910 mb
4) Irma, Sep. 6, 2017: Barbuda, St. Martin, British Virgin Islands, 180 mph, 914-915 mb; also Sep. 9, northern Cuba, 165 mph, 924 mb
5) Camille, Aug. 18, 1969: Mississippi, 175 mph, 900 mb
5) Dean, Aug. 21, 2007: Mexico (Yucatan) , 175 mph, 905
5) David, Aug. 31, 1979: Dominican Republic, 175 mph, 926 mb
5) Anita, Sep. 2, 1977: Mexico (north of Tampico), 175 mph, 926 mb
5) Janet, Sep. 28, 1955: Mexico (Yucatan) , 175 mph, 914 mb
10) Maria, Sep. 19, 2017: Dominica, 165 mph, 922 mb
10) Cuba Hurricane, Oct. 19, 1924: western Cuba, 165 mph, 910 mb
10) Andrew, Aug. 24, 1992: Florida, 165 mph, 922 mb; also Bahamas (Eleuthera), 160 mph, 923 mb
13) Michael, Oct. 10, 2018: Florida, 160 mph, 919 mb
13) Felix, Sep. 4, 2007: Nicaragua, 160 mph, 934 mb
13) Gilbert, Sep. 14, 1988: Mexico (Cozumel), 160 mph, 900 mb
13) Edith, Sep. 9, 1971: Nicaragua, 160 mph, 943 mb
13) Inez, Sep. 29, 1966: Dominican Republic, 160 mph, pressure unknown
13) Unnamed, Aug. 31, 1933: Bahamas (Mayaguana), 160 mph, pressure unknown
13) Unnamed, Sep. 5, 1932: Bahamas (Abaco), 160 mph, pressure unknown
13) San Filipe Hurricane, Sep. 28, 1928: Puerto Rico, 160 mph, 931 mb
A very bad day in Jamaica
Today’s punishing blow by Melissa to Jamaica will far exceed the island’s previous worst hurricane, Hurricane Gilbert of 1988. Gilbert hit the eastern end of the island as a Cat 4 with 130 mph winds, then plowed straight across Jamaica from east to west. Gilbert did $1 billion in damage ($2.7 billion 2025 USD) — about 26% of Jamaica’s GDP at the time.
Wind damage, storm surge, and inland flood damage from Melissa will all be worse than experienced during Gilbert, though Melissa’s eyewall will spare the eastern half of the island, including the most heavily populated capital region (Kingston), from extreme wind damage. Wind damage will be catastrophic over the western end of Jamaica, which has the highest proportion of poorly-built structures (see Bluesky post below).
Catastrophic inland flooding and landslides will spare no part of the island. A personal weather station on the east side of Kingston at Millsborough recorded a 36-hour rainfall amount of 7.02 inches as of 1 p.m. EDT Monday. A personal weather station on the west side of Kingston at Portmore reported 4.77 inches over the same time span, and another station on the north central shore of Jamaica at Boscobel reported 5.01 inches over the same time span.
Storm surge damage will be heavy along the southwest coast of the island, which is expected to receive Melissa’s maximum 9-13 feet of inundation. The north shore of Jamaica between Falmouth and Runaway Bay may also see storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above mean sea level, according to the latest storm surge forecast from CERA, the Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment (Fig 1). The capital of Kingston is forecast to see less than three feet of storm surge.
Severe turbulence forces another aborted mission by the Hurricane Hunters
For the second consecutive day, a hurricane hunter aircraft had to abort its mission and return to base because of severe turbulence in Melissa. Today, it was Air Force aircraft TEAL 75 (see Tweet below). The aircraft made one penetration into Melissa Tuesday morning, then orbited the eye for over 35 minutes, potentially to check for damage or fasten any items that may have gotten dislodged during the turbulence.
Yesterday morning, NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft N42RF (Kermit) was forced to abort their flight after two eye penetrations into Melissa, after encountering extreme turbulence in the southwestern eyewall. After returning to base and being inspected for damage, that aircraft returned to make the final penetration into Melissa this morning, before the hurricane hit Jamaica. Yesterday’s aborted mission was only the fourth time I’m aware of that the NOAA Hurricane Hunters have had to abort a flight because of extreme turbulence (the others: Emily in 1987, Hugo in 1989, and Felix in 2007). I had the dubious honor of being the flight meteorologist on two of those flights, Emily in 1987 and Hugo in 1989. There were also flights into Cat 5 Allen in 1980 and Cat 5 Edith in 1971 that forced NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft to modify their missions to fly at a higher safer altitude.
World record dropsonde gust of 252 mph measured by the Hurricane Hunters
A dropsonde released by the NOAA Hurricane Hunters at 9:50 a.m. EDT Tuesday, Oct. 28, in the south-southeastern eyewall of Melissa, recorded an astonishing wind gust of 252 mph (406 km/h, or 219 kt) at an altitude of 657 feet. If valid, this would be a world record for the highest wind gust ever measured by dropsonde. The previous record was 247 mph (398 km/h or 215 kt) in Typhoon Megi of 2010 in the Western Pacific (h/t to Sim Aberson for that stat).
The previous record in an Atlantic hurricane was set just yesterday in Melissa: a 241 mph (388 km/h) gust at 709 feet at 8:55 a.m. EDT. Prior to Melissa, the previous Atlantic record was 238 mph (384 km/h) in Hurricane Isabel in 2003, measured at an altitude of 1.4 km. A 262 mph (421 km/h) gust measured in Hurricane Katrina in 2005 is considered unconfirmed, because of a loss of the raw data.
The series of five videos posted on Twitter by Tropical Cowboy of Danger of the Air Force Hurricane Hunters (see below), taken during a flight on Monday, when Melissa was at peak strength as a Cat 5 with 175 mph winds and a pressure of 906 mb, have some of the most impressive views I’ve ever seen of the eye of a hurricane.
Melissa came close to its maximum potential intensity
The maximum potential intensity (MPI) of a tropical cyclone — the maximum strength a storm can achieve based on the existing atmospheric and oceanic conditions — was about 195 mph (315 km/h) for Melissa as it approached Jamaica, according to the 12Z Tuesday run of the SHIPS model. Melissa’s MPI was about 200 mph with a central pressure around 875 mb, according to a graphic available at the University of Wisconsin’s CIMSS (Fig. 5). Given the light to moderate wind shear of 5-15 that affected Melissa over the past day, along with its very slow motion and potential interaction with the rugged terrain of Jamaica, the storm came remarkably close to its maximum potential intensity.
Forecast for Melissa
A trough of low pressure passing to the north has yanked Melissa to the northeast at an accelerating pace. On this track, Melissa will bring two days of torrential rains to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Haiti. The Two-day rainfall forecast issued Monday by NHC for Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southwestern Haiti is highly concerning, with catastrophic flooding and landslides likely as a result of rainfall measured in feet, not inches. Consult our post from day before yesterday, which provides maps with detailed risks for inland flooding, storm surge flooding, and landslides for Jamaica.
Land interaction with the high mountains of Jamaica will weaken Melissa, but the storm is so large and powerful that it is still likely to be a major hurricane when it hits eastern Cuba. Inland flooding and mudslides from Melissa’s torrential rains are likely to be the main hazard in Cuba, but damage from high winds and storm surge will also be substantial. Cuba’s fragile electrical grid suffered a complete island-wide collapse when Cat 3 Hurricane Rafael hit in November last year, and has suffered four more collapses since then, each one requiring about 2-3 days to recover from. Melissa will be a threat to take down the grid for a sixth time in the past year.
After crossing eastern Cuba, Melissa is likely to pass quickly through the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. This fast motion will limit the rains of the hurricane, but rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches (125-250 mm) are likely. Melissa’s current forecast track takes it over or very near Crooked Island, which is highly vulnerable to storm surge (Fig. 4). Melissa will likely be a Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricane in the Bahamas. On Thursday, when it will be very near Bermuda, Melissa is likely to be at Cat 1 strength.
Melissa is likely to pass a few hundred miles southeast of Newfoundland, Canada on Saturday, and a flow of moist air around the storm is likely to contribute to heavy rains of 1-3 inches (25-75 mm) over Atlantic Canada on Friday and Saturday, associated with a separate coastal storm.
Please donate to Hurricane Melissa relief efforts
In the coming days, you’ll see a number of appeals for Hurricane Melissa relief; please consider donating to one. One charity that I’ve donated to in the past, GlobalGiving, has set up the GlobalGiving Hurricane Melissa Relief Fund. Their mission: “to help meet immediate needs for search and rescue assistance, medical care, food, clean water, temporary shelter, and more. Once initial relief work is complete, this fund will transition to support longer-term recovery led by vetted, community-based organizations. Special priority will be given to marginalized and underserved populations most impacted by the hurricane. Give now.“
Another charity that has a Hurricane Melissa response fund is Water Mission, a Christian engineering nonprofit. “Clean, safe water is critical during any disaster to prevent the spread of water-related illnesses, especially in the initial days following a disaster,” they emailed me.
Bob Henson contributed to this post.
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Great Job Jeff Masters & the Team @ Yale Climate Connections Source link for sharing this story.
