Given the heated times we live in, (in all the senses of the word) it was highly unlikely that this year’s State of the Cryosphere Report would bring good news about the impacts of climate warming on our frozen regions. Global ice loss is not letting up any time soon. On the contrary. Ten years after the signing of the Paris Agreement, ice and snow loss is accelerating. If anything should convince the delegates attending COP30 in Brazil of the need for ambitious and urgent action, this latest assessment of the state of our frozen regions should. This is not just about ice and snow. As the Report’s title says: Ice Loss = Global Damage.
50 leading scientists contributed to the annual assessment coordinated by the International Cryosphere Cllimate Initiative (ICCI) and released to coincide with COP30 in Belém. They analyze the huge ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, mountain glaciers, the polar oceans, sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic and permafrost. Their findings are alarming: Ten years on from the Paris Agreement, “the main messages remain the same: losses are accelerating, they are nearly all irreversible, and the great majority of populations impacted by cryosphere loss are not in regions of ice, but well downstream”, writes ICCI founder and director Pam Pearson in a foreword to the Report. “Coastal flooding today does not come really from the ocean, but from melting glaciers –and going forward, almost entirely from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets”, she warns.
Disaster for billions without urgent action
The world’s current climate policies will trigger long-term sea-level rise and the loss of coastlines on a massive global scale, the Report finds. Glaciers everywhere are shrinking or disappearing. Areas of the polar oceans are becoming so acidic that shelled lifeforms can no longer survive. Sea ice at both poles has declined year round. Combined Arctic and Antarctic sea ice hit its lowest area ever in February 2025, with far-ranging impacts from food webs to ocean currents. The Report notes a growing scientific consensus that freshwater pouring off the melting Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, together with warmer waters, seem to be slowing important ocean currents at both poles, which would wreak havoc on ocean ecosystems and the climate in many areas, bringing much colder temperatures to northern Europe.
The scientists provide new evidence of net carbon dioxide and methane emissions from Arctic permafrost, even in winter. This means permafrost is now confirmed as a net source of carbon emissions, releasing more carbon into the atmosphere than these ecosystems absorb in the growing season.
Most of these changes will be irreversible for centuries, or even thousands of years. At the same time, the Report points to recent findings showing that the worst impacts can still be avoided. The cryosphere scientists make it clear that the extent to which we can limit temperature rise will have a decisive impact on the extent of ice melt and resulting damage.This is the key message we have to take from this year’s update. We can still choose to limit the damage and preserve much of our global ice and snow regions. That means taking action now and following what the latest research refers to as a “highest-ambition pathway” towards a zero-carbon lifestyle and economy.
Overshoot and back
Ten years after the Paris Agreement, it is clear that we are going to overshoot the 1.5°C upper limit it set for global temperature rise starting at the latest in the early 2030s.
“We need a fundamental paradigm shift to limit this overshoot’s magnitude and duration and quickly drive it down”, said UN Secretary General Guterres as world leaders arrived in Belém for the COP. Even a temporary overshoot will unleash far greater destruction and costs for every nation, he said The 1.5°C limit remained “a red line for humanity”, and required rapid emissions cuts, an accelerated phase-out of fossil fuels, and stronger protection of forests and oceans. Failure to contain global heating amounts to “moral failure and deadly negligence,” said Mr. Guterres.
You can’t put it any plainer than that.
The global climate science and policy institute Climate Analytics has just published several new papers detailing how the world can get back on track:
Rescuing 1.5°C: new evidence on the highest possible ambition to deliver the Paris Agreement shows how the overshoot could be limited to the lowest possible level and warming returned to well below 1.5°C by 2100, starting in 2025.
“Ten years on from Paris, the science is starker than ever”, the experts stress. 1.5°C is a planetary limit “beyond which climate impacts escalate and risk triggering catastrophic tipping points”.
The emissions and energy pathways aligned with the 1.5°C limit assessed in the most recent IPCC report (AR6) are now out of date, with emissions still rising and global temperatures soaring.
“On the other hand, in the last five years renewable energy and other zero-carbon technologies have decreased substantially in cost and are far more cost-competitive than anticipated and can be scaled up faster,” says Climate Analytics.
This is the good news which can help us get back to the 1.5°C upper limit. The experts present a new “Highest Possible Ambition” scenario, starting from today’s emission levels (2025) and energy market dynamics to “achieve the safest possible temperature outcome within physical, technological and economic feasibility limits.”
Brazil has said COP30 will be “all about implementation”. The latest research and analysis provides us with concrete and practical guidelines to do just that.
Fossil fuels: elimination not compensation
A series of specialized reports detail how major emitting sectors can fully eliminate fossil fuel use and reach real zero on tight timelines. EU road freight, for instance, could reach real zero by 2040 with other regions not far behind. Global steel and shipping could reach real zero by 2050, the experts calculate. “Real zero” means completely eliminating fossil fuels by replacing them with zero-carbon alternatives, rather than compensating for them with offsets, carbon dioxide removal or carbon capture and storage. (So the EU, for instance, would have to up its latest compromise goals considerably).
“Net zero is not the same as zero. To keep 1.5°C in reach, we must drive as many sectors as possible to real zero before mid-century,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics. “That reduces over-reliance on negative emissions and delivers durable decarbonisation.”
“We need to ensure removals are used to bring temperatures back down, not compensate for continued fossil fuel use,” he said.
Sounds reasonable?
This kind of work provides bridges between what climate science is telling us and how we can in practice improve lives and livelihoods across the globe by cutting emissions.
“The transition to real zero is not a distant aspiration, but an immediate and tangible possibility. The viability of real zero is only growing over time as zero-carbon technologies rapidly advance and mature, and their costs fall,” said Michael Petroni, author and Climate and Energy Policy Analyst at Climate Analytics.
“Companies that embrace real zero will find themselves at the forefront of the emerging green economy”, the group goes on. Meanwhile, “those that continue to rely on carbon dioxide removal or carbon capture and storage risk being competitively disadvantaged as zero-carbon alternatives become increasingly cost-effective.”
What better an argument to counter claims that climate protection measures put companies at a disadvantage?
Highest possible ambition: the icy imperative
For the experts who compiled the latest State of the Cryosphere Report, these “Highest Possible Ambition” (HPA) pathways show that it is not too late to avoid the worst impacts of cryosphere melt.
“Despite overshoot as high as 1.8°C, temperatures can be lowered this century through a combination of aggressive emissions cuts and land-based carbon dioxide removal techniques”, the scientists write. This would slow and then halt glacier, snow and sea ice loss, as well as permafrost thaw.
“Parts of the polar ice sheets, especially those of West Antarctica, may well have passed so-called “tipping points” or thresholds for collapse, they warn. However, these can be drastically slowed, especially if temperature can return below 1°C above pre-industrialised times next century.
“This is the difference between facing 3 meters’ sea-level rise early next century (with current emissions), versus that amount in one or two thousand years”, says ICCI Director Pam Pearson.
“”Landmark science published in 2025 shows beyond doubt that even current temperatures are too high to maintain the long-term stability of glaciers and ice sheets, says Dr. James Kirkham, Chief Scientist to the Ambition on Melting Ice (AMI) high-level group of nations and an author on the Report. Given the inevitable overshoot in the next few years, “Preserving the Earth’s cryosphere now means reaching 1.5°C by 2100 and lowering temperatures towards 1°C thereafter.”
COP30 in Belém: a one-time opportunity
In a letter published in The Observer ahead of COP30, the group of influential public figures Planetary Guardians call on the governments of the world to “commit to a clear, coordinated plan to phase out fossil fuels within the next 20 years, with measurable milestones and accountability”.
The science is unambiguous, they say.
“And the consequences are visible everywhere: devastating floods, heatwaves, fires and droughts are erasing decades of progress in development and social justice. The planetary emergency is not a distant threat – it is a direct attack on the world’s hard-won goals of eradicating poverty, ending hunger, protecting the environment and ensuring peace and stability. Every tonne of carbon emitted deepens inequality and undermines the foundations of human progress. No nation, no matter how wealthy or isolated, is immune.”
The task before us is vast, but the cost of inaction is immeasurably greater, the Planetary Guardians write. The energy transition will be a “win-win” for humankind and the planet:
“The path away from fossil fuels is not one of sacrifice, but of renewal – of cleaner air, healthier people, more secure societies, and flourishing economies.”
Belém offers a symbolic and practical opportunity to bring global ambition and planetary reality into line:
“The tools are in our hands. The economics are on our side. The moral case is undeniable. What is needed now is courage and unity. The world has shown before that when faced with a global challenge, we can act together — to end wars, cure diseases, and rebuild after crises. This is one of those moments”, the Guardians conclude.
What more can I say?
Great Job iqiceblog & the Team @ The Ice Blog Source link for sharing this story.
