Unpredictable Spurts of Dry and Wet Weather Cause Confusion and New Challenges for Midwestern Farmers – Inside Climate News

On Oct. 5, 40 fire departments in Ford County, Illinois, responded to a field fire quickly picking up speed. Starting in a bean field, the flames traveled several miles across thousands of acres and swept across bean and corn fields. Three homes were close to danger, but firefighters and farmers were able to save them. Farmers used a disc harrow to turn and mix the soil, burying flammable material like grass and crop residue to create a firebreak. The flames ravaged the fields for about seven hours. 

Steve Stierwalt, 70, a fourth-generation corn and soybean farmer in Sadorus, Illinois, about 50 miles from Ford County, said this was the first year in his memory that some farmers took water tanks to the field with them—not for livestock or for drinking, but because of fire risk. He explained that local co-ops have started preparing water tanks in advance, ready to be quickly distributed in case of emergency. The summer of 2025 was the fourth-driest summer on record for Champaign County, where he lives.

“We’re blessed with deep soil in Illinois, so it has a good water holding capacity. We can withstand dry weather better than most places, but eventually it does need to rain,” he said. 

Although rainfall varies from county to county, Kristopher Reynolds, midwest regional director at the American Farmland Trust in Nokomis, Illinois, said the region averages 36 to 38 inches of rain per year. If trends hold, the region will be 9 inches behind its yearly average by December. Reynolds said rainfall in November and December is typically very low.

Extreme and erratic weather, which according to scientists at NASA continues to become more frequent, is a direct result of climate change. Farmers’ reliance on predictable weather patterns has left many of them struggling to cope with this new norm.

What Makes This Year Different

The dry conditions this season are directly contributing to increased fire risk, said Reynolds, who also farms 750 acres of corn and soybeans of his own. He noted that the region usually does not extensively worry about field fires, but dry conditions create risk and heighten anxieties. Dust is a natural byproduct of crop harvesting, and if enough of it gets caught on a hot combine bearing that ignites, the sparks will fall onto highly flammable dry crop residue. 

Wind is another factor, as high speeds can move flames from one field to the next in seconds. According to Reynolds, there are about 23 million acres of corn and soybeans being harvested in Illinois during the same span of weeks in early to mid fall, which can increase the risk of a fire when combined with an exceptionally dry climate. 

Stierwalt said he’s noticed something similar. “If you do get a fire and the wind races it across the field, it goes quicker than you can walk. Once it gets going like that, it spreads out like a fan and won’t stop until something stops it,” he said.

In an ordinary year, the region usually struggles with too much water. Reynolds said heavy rain in the spring can delay planting. There are drown-out spots where crops are unable to grow, usually settled on lower ground where pooled water has trouble escaping. Stierwalt described one common practice called tiling, which involves installing a network of pipes below the soil’s surface to remove excess water. 

This year, farmers have had the opposite problem—not enough water. Stierwalt said on his farm, the higher ground struggled with water retention and crops suffered, while lower ground thrived. Even though the ground in Champaign County looks relatively flat, he said it has elevation shifts of a few feet. That’s enough to make water run off of higher areas into lover areas when the region does receive rain. “In a normal year that may not make much difference, but in a drought year, crops may be much better in the lower ground,” he said.

Another challenge that’s become more common, according to Reynolds, is the fluctuation of weather patterns from week to week and county to county. He explained that when examining historically large storms, the estimated amount of rainfall per storm is four inches. For the past few years though, storms have grown, easily surpassing the four-inch mark. Rainfall events of eight or 10 inches are becoming the new norm, even during a drought year. 

Using 2025 as an example, Reynolds said this spring planters delayed their seeding because of too much rain. But in July and August, “the spigot shut off and it got really dry,” he said. “It’s feast or famine a lot of the time. We hope for rain but you get more than what you need during those larger events.” 

Steirwalt agreed, adding that wind plays a big factor in the movement of storms and can explain why areas so close together are experiencing different amounts of precipitation. With normal levels of wind, which in Illinois during autumn is about 7 mph, storms move through an area swiftly and distribute the rain evenly across the land. With lower wind speeds, as Steirwalt said was the case this year, storms sit in the same place and can cause larger rain events. 

Research from the University of Chicago shows that winds in the upper-level jet stream, a narrow band of fast-flowing, west-to-east wind in the upper atmosphere, will continue to pick up speed as the global mean temperature increases. Speeds will increase by about 2 percent for every degree the planet warms. 

While more research needs to be conducted to test the increased speed’s impacts on severe weather, “based on these results and our current understanding, we expect record-breaking winds,” said Tiffany Shaw, a professor in the University of Chicago’s Department of the Geophysical Sciences. 

Kevin Mahoney, a certified consulting meteorologist who manages weather risk communications at DTN, a global data and technology company with a focus on weather intelligence, said the impacts of these dry conditions on railways, shipping channels and other transport methods for agricultural goods appear limited at this time. If the dry conditions continue into the spring, though, that could change. 

In a long-term drought, one that lasts longer than six months, river levels will fall. A majority of the Midwest, including Minnesota, Missouri, Iowa and Wisconsin, use the Mississippi River to transport grains. The depth of the river is a major concern, Mahoney explained, because if it becomes too low, barges will have to take less product, ultimately slowing the entire supply chain and increasing prices for the consumer. Stierwalt noted that railways will also become more congested, adding pressure to an already heavily used system. 

Another important change in farmers’ lives is related not to the weather, but to the federal policies. Soybean tariffs imposed by the United States government have affected farmers’ ability to compete in the global trade market, Reynolds said. Since May, China has been effectively boycotting U.S.-grown soybeans in response to President Trump’s tariffs. In an ordinary year, U.S. farmers sell about $24 billion worth of soybeans, with China purchasing about half. When “artificial constraints” on the export system, like tariffs, are implemented, the U.S. and its farmers lose their competitive edge. 

“The longer we are not competitive, the more other counties will take our place,” Reynolds said. 

Preparation for the Future

For now, farmers like Stierwalt and Reynolds will continue to watch drought monitors, track impending storms that could potentially bring rain and implement conservation techniques that will better prepare them for future droughts. 

One approach, planting cover crops, can improve soil health and help keep natural plant residues on the surface of the soil, but rain fluctuations hamper its efficacy, according to Reynolds. A drought, especially in the fall, prohibits cover crop planting and success as soil moisture is low. But Stierwalt cautioned that heavy rain on fields without cover crops can lead to sheet erosion, which disrupts soil nutrients. 

“The climate issues and the need for conservation are more important than ever,” Reynolds said, “but it’s even more challenging to manage and implement because of the climate.”