Atlantic hurricane season hits rare September lull; peak passes without a sound

SAN ANTONIO – There are no tropical systems active anywhere in the Atlantic basin as the peak of the season approaches. Satellite imagery captured Monday afternoon shows a basin devoid of organized storms.

This year’s Atlantic hurricane season has hit an unexpected September speed bump. The climatological peak — Wednesday, Sept. 10 — is passing without a single named storm, marking the first time in nearly a decade that the basin has gone silent at this point in the season.

The six-month hurricane season officially began in June, but the bulk of activity typically occurs between mid-August and early October. Sept. 10 stands as the statistical high point, with roughly three-quarters of the past 76 years featuring an active storm on this date, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

This year, however, the Atlantic is pitching a shutout.

The last named storm, Tropical Storm Fernand, dissipated far from land on Aug. 28. If no new storms form in the coming days, it will be the latest into September the basin has gone without a named storm since 1992, when Bonnie formed on Sept. 18 of that year.

The National Hurricane Center expects the Atlantic to remain quiet for at least the next week.

WHY IS IT QUIET?

September typically offers the widest swath of ocean ripe for tropical development, thanks to warm waters and favorable atmospheric conditions. Sea surface temperatures across the basin are warmer than average — though not record-breaking — but that warmth alone isn’t enough.

This month, the tropical Atlantic has been dominated by dry, stable air, which suppresses storm formation by limiting rainfall and convection. A plume of Saharan dust has also contributed to the dryness, choking off development in the Main Development Region between Africa and the Caribbean.

Wind shear, which can disrupt or dismantle developing systems, has remained elevated in key areas. While not the primary culprit for last week’s failed system, it’s another piece of the puzzle that has kept the tropics quiet.

Additionally, tropical waves — storm seeds that typically roll off Africa — have been weaker than usual due to reduced rainfall over West Africa, further limiting storm potential.

SEASON SO FAR

Six named storms have formed this season, two fewer than the average by Sept. 9.

Most have been short-lived, with Hurricane Erin standing out as the lone hurricane. Fueled by warm waters, Erin rapidly intensified into a Category 5 storm in mid-August, but the storm remained offshore.

Despite the low storm count, impacts have been significant. Tropical Storm Barry’s remnants contributed to deadly flooding in Texas over the July 4 holiday, while Tropical Storm Chantal brought destructive floods to parts of North Carolina just days later.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Historically, more than half of the season’s activity occurs after Sept. 10. Late-season storms have proven just as dangerous, with recent years featuring powerful hurricanes like Helene, Milton and Ian striking in late September and early October.

Forecasters expect conditions to become more favorable later this month. The Madden-Julian Oscillation — a global weather pattern — may shift into a phase that supports tropical development. Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf and Caribbean remain very warm, providing ample fuel for any future systems.

The next named storm will be Gabrielle.

While the Atlantic may be quiet now, history suggests that calm could be temporary.

Residents in hurricane-prone areas should remain vigilant. The season is far from over.