Baltimore sees progress on gun violence

Andrea Stevens
AFRO Staff Writer
astevens@afro.com

Baltimore is often associated with high rates of violence, but after years of record-high shootings and homicides, the city is seeing a sustained decline in gun violence. Experts and city officials attribute the trend to a combination of prosecutorial focus, community-based interventions and policy reform. Some warn, however, that recent political shifts at the federal level could threaten that fragile progress.

“April’s record low is a hopeful milestone, but it shouldn’t be mistaken for a turning point,” said Carla Tilchin, assistant scientist in the Department of Health Policy and Management at the Center for Gun Violence Solutions at Johns Hopkins University.

According to a press release from Mayor Brandon M. Scott, “In the month of April, there were 5 homicides in the City of Baltimore — the fewest ever recorded in a single month. Through the end of April, homicides are down 31.6 percent and nonfatal shootings are down 27.1 percent  compared to last year.” April 2025 marked a record low in citywide shootings — a hopeful milestone. Still, experts caution against mistaking short-term progress for long-term transformation.

Much of the city’s success is being attributed to the Group Violence Reduction Strategy, or GVRS — a collaborative effort among law enforcement, community-based organizations and social services that targets individuals most at risk of committing or falling victim to violence.

“GVRS is clearly part of what’s been helping the city drive down the numbers. The plan is to move that program citywide, though that will require significant resources,” said Daniel Webster, professor in the Department of Health Policy and Management at the Center for Gun Violence Solutions at Johns Hopkins.

Tilchin emphasized that the effectiveness of GVRS lies in its precision and trust-based approach.

“GVRS is making measurable progress largely because it is sharply focused on the small number of individuals driving the majority of violence,” she said. “It uses sophisticated data analysis and trusted cross-agency information sharing to identify and reach those most at risk.”

Tilchin also pointed to statewide efforts that complement Baltimore’s local strategies. She highlighted the role of Maryland’s new public safety leadership in building long-term solutions to gun violence.

“Maryland continues to strengthen its violence prevention efforts under the leadership of Governor Wes Moore and the new Center for Firearm Violence Prevention and Intervention,” she said. “That center is taking both a data-driven and community-driven approach to establishing gun violence prevention priorities and is not shying away from investments in root causes of violence.”

Even as the GVRS model shows promise, recent political changes have jeopardized critical support.

Both Tilchin and Webster raised concerns about the loss of federal funding for key community-based organizations that support violence prevention efforts.

Webster emphasized that future success will also depend on the city’s ability to engage youth and respond to the growing role of social media in fueling conflict.

“Baltimore has young people who could actually help be part of that solution,” he said. “The city needs to develop a more formal approach to engaging youth, especially around violence connected to social media.”

He also stressed the importance of monitoring and responding to online conflict before it escalates into street violence.

“We also need some capacity for redirecting the exchanges between youth online to try to steer people away from violence,” he said.

Webster offered a reminder that community dynamics can shift quickly.

“Gun violence is contagious — one shooting moves to another and another to retaliation,” he said. “But in recent months, thankfully, we’ve had more peace about communities, and that can be contagious as well.”