Tarrant County Republicans may have a rough season heading toward the Nov. 3 midterm elections, political analysts and party officials said after the GOP suffered a high-profile loss in the Texas Senate District 9 runoff.
Democratic Party leaders say state Sen.-elect Taylor Rehmet’s 13-point win will bolster momentum heading into midterm elections, but GOP organizers say it’s too soon to say that Leigh Wambsganss’ loss is a sign of trouble ahead.
“We’re seeing anything is possible,” said Allison Campolo, chair of the Tarrant County Democratic Party, adding that Rehmet’s win is “one of the biggest swings” since Trump got reelected.
The Jan. 31 Texas Senate runoff drew national attention, with both parties looking for a prophetic sign of which way the country could swing as state and federal representatives campaign ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
Tarrant County, often considered one of the largest red counties in the United States but showing occasional signs of trending purple, is a reliable indicator of the nation’s political climate, said Keith Gaddie, a political science professor at Texas Christian University.
“This is not a good situation for the Republicans,” Gaddie said of Rehmet’s win. “But the good news for them is: This is (February), which means there’s time to course correct.”
In 2024, President Donald Trump won the historically red district that covers a large swath of north and west Tarrant County by more than 17 points.
Saturday’s election was largely ceremonial. Rehmet’s win only secured the seat for the remainder of former Sen. Kelly Hancock’s term, which ends in January before the next legislative session begins. Hancock resigned in June to be acting state comptroller, triggering the special election.
Rehmet and Wambsganss are set for a rematch in November, and the winner will serve a full, four-year term. Both candidates are running unopposed in the March 3 primary election.
The Tarrant County GOP is “not panicking” about Wambsganss’ loss, chairman Tim Davis said Monday.
“We adjust our strategy every election because we want to be responsive to the electorate,” Davis said. “We want to meet people where they are. We want to make sure that we’re speaking to the issues that matter to them and their families, and so we’re going to keep doing that.”
Runoffs and special elections already typically attract lower voter turnout than general elections, Davis noted. This one was in January, after the holidays and a severe winter storm, with the March primaries quickly approaching, he added.
Still, Davis conceded that the Democratic Party mobilized voters better than the GOP — “full recognition of math is math,” he said.
Gaddie said Republicans’ struggle to attract voters to the polls points to an “enthusiasm gap” within those the GOP has previously relied on for turnout.
Between Trump’s recent use of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, in some major cities and what Gaddie called “constant chaos in both economic policy and foreign policy,” Republicans are fatigued, the professor said.
“If we had a general election under these circumstances with these two candidates, we should have seen this result based on the environment as it stands right now,” Gaddie said, shrugging off some GOP notions that Rehmet’s performance was the result of weather and timing.
The election saw 15% of registered voters turn out, compared to about 19% on Nov. 4.
Campolo said her party and Rehmet’s campaign organized strategically and collaboratively with other political groups — such as Tarrant County Young Democrats, the state’s and other counties’ Democratic parties, primary candidates and current elected officials — to increase voter turnout.
For example, they invested in Fort Worth’s Northside “more than we ever have in the past,” Campolo said, highlighting the campaign’s bilingual messaging in Spanish and increased block walking in the predominantly Latino neighborhood.
“For maybe the first time in a long time, we’re seeing investments into the Latino community really pay off,” Campolo said.
Fort Worth resident Damiya Pentecost voted for Rehmet at the Southside Community Center on Saturday morning. She said the Air Force veteran and labor union leader connected deeply with constituents like her who wanted “something different” from their representatives.
Up until Saturday, District 9 had been reliably red since 1991.
“We can’t keep doing the same thing and expecting different results,” Pentecost said. “We have to be very vocal through the election process in making sure that our voices are heard and that we hold people accountable even after they’re elected.”
Campolo attributed Rehmet’s win to the candidates’ vastly differing campaigns.
Early into campaign season, Wambsganss took a heavily partisan stance, branding herself as “ultra MAGA” and touting endorsements from Trump. Her campaign spent $3.2 million, funded primarily by Republican political action committees, or PACS, and West Texas oil tycoons. That number includes $785,998 non-monetary contributions like mailers and text campaigns,
Rehmet ran a comparatively low-budget campaign, spending $531,331, including $286,600 in non-monetary contributions. His messaging on affordability and working-class Texans “really resonated with Democrats,” Campolo said, while also appealing to Republicans tired of partisan politics or unenamored with the GOP candidate’s MAGA persona.
On Sunday, local and state GOP leaders called on Tarrant County Republicans to mobilize ahead of what they called the “most important (elections) of our lifetime.”
“We cannot afford to lose what is the most important county in the entire country,” Tarrant County Judge Tim O’Hare told the crowd at a “night of action” hosted by Mercy Culture Church. “And last night, we got our butts kicked.”
Rehmet’s win against the financial odds signaled to Davis that the GOP has to raise money aggressively and spend it efficiently, he said.
“I don’t think it was so much of a battle of dollars as it was turnout and just whose base was going to go and vote,” Davis said.
Wambsganss’ position as an executive with the conservative mobile carrier Patriot Mobile drew scrutiny throughout the campaign trail as well, observers noted. A decadeslong GOP activist, Wambsganss gained notoriety in north Tarrant County in 2022 when she helped lead a Republican push to elect Christian conservatives to school boards in northeast Tarrant County, which became an epicenter for culture wars over what books and lessons were available.
Wambsganss’ reputation in north Tarrant, coupled with extreme partisanship in the county, helped Democrats mobilize voters, Campolo said.
Last year, Republican county commissioners redrew their district lines to favor GOP candidates in a mid-decade redistricting process Democrats decried as racial gerrymandering intended to dilute the power of voters of color.
Voters then saw O’Hare and his Republican colleagues cut polling sites. They said the reductions were intended to save money and resources but critics worried they would limit accessibility for progressive voters.
“Republicans, keep, keep, keep kicking the anthill and this is what’s going to happen, is they’re going to activate Democrats,” Campolo said.
Fort Worth resident James Smith braved the winter weather to vote right when polls opened Saturday at the Summerglen Library. He said he voted for Rehmet because the local GOP is “in shambles.”
In past elections, Smith has voted for Republicans and Democrats depending on their values. For now, he doesn’t see himself supporting GOP candidates.
“We need a different change of direction, and until (Republicans) fix their platform, I’m going to vote for people who help the local communities do better for every individual,” Smith said.
Cecilia Lenzen and Drew Shaw are government accountability reporters for the Fort Worth Report. Contact them at cecilia.lenzen@fortworthreport.organd drew.shaw@fortworthreport.org.
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Great Job Cecilia Lenzen and Drew Shaw & the Team @ Fort Worth Report for sharing this story.
