At least some distributors stocked up on the equipment in 2024, so they’d be ready if customers asked for their broken heat pumps or ACs to be replaced with the same models, said Kevin Carbonnier, senior manager of market intelligence at the nonprofit Building Decarbonization Coalition. That led to a backlog of extra inventory in 2025.
But the refrigerant and market factors “are temporary headwinds,” said Wael Kanj, research manager at electrification advocacy nonprofit Rewiring America. “I don’t think they change the fundamentals. Heat pumps are still the most efficient and comfortable way to heat and cool the home.”
Standing in the way of a total heat-pump takeover has long been their price tag. In 2024, Rewiring America estimated that for a medium-size home, a central heat-pump system costs a median of $25,000. A comparable gas furnace plus central AC system can cost roughly half that.
Even for the same building, contractors may provide hugely varying estimates. Last year, heat-pump research firm Laminar Collective found that for one 2,000-square-foot abode in the Boston area, installers’ quotes for a whole-home heat-pump system could differ by more than $10,000.
Some federal funding to boost heat pumps continues to flow, however, including a $200 million grant to Denver-area local governments. Several states — including California, Georgia, New York, and Indiana — have also been able to tap into an $8.8 billion grant program created under the Biden administration to launch home energy rebate programs that help low- and median-income households afford heat pumps.
Even without the tax credits, thousands of incentive programs that lower the upfront costs of electrification still exist at state, local, and utility levels, Kanj said. Rewiring America and the North Carolina Clean Energy Technology Center offer online tools so that households can find available credits.
State and local governments are also pursuing creative ways to help heat pumps take off. New England and California have launched multipronged initiatives to raise public awareness and get heating, ventilation, and air conditioning contractors on board. Massachusetts has implemented a lower winter electricity rate for heat pump owners. New York City, which has an all-electric standard for new buildings, launched a $38.4 million program earlier this month to deploy window heat pumps in affordable housing. And California legislators are considering a bill that would cut red tape for homeowners looking to install these electric appliances.
And although U.S. heat-pump sales didn’t break any annual records in 2025, the tech did quietly achieve a major milestone: In September, more heat pumps shipped than central ACs for the first time.
“It’s really exciting to see the market moving in that direction,” Shea said.
The Building Decarbonization Coalition’s Carbonnier hopes that in the next year or two, “we’ll see it fully cross over” — the way heat pumps overtook gas furnaces four years ago.
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Great Job Alison F. Takemura & the Team @ Canary Media for sharing this story.
