Tropical Storm Melissa became Hurricane Melissa at 2 p.m. EDT Saturday, October 25, kicking off what’s expected to be the highest-impact storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. This deadly, destructive hurricane was on the verge of rapidly intensifying as it heads slowly westward towards Jamaica. Melissa is being blamed for three deaths in Haiti, and widespread damaging flooding in the Dominican Republic.
As of 2 p.m. EDT Saturday, Melissa was centered about 145 miles (230 kilometers) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, with sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) and a central pressure of 980 mb, drifting west-northwest at just 1 mph (2 km/hr). Satellite imagery showed Melissa was now well-organized, with a symmetric shape, heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops surrounding the center, an increasing amount of low-level spiral bands, and upper-level outflow channels to the north and southeast. An eye was not yet visible, but should appear soon.
The Hurricane Hunters reported on Saturday morning that Melissa had developed a complete eyewall, and microwave satellite imagery showed a complete cyan-colored ring at the 37 GHz frequency surrounding the center, which is usually a strong indication that a period of rapid intensification is about to begin (see Bluesky post below).
Melissa’s torrential rains have brought significant flooding to the Dominican Republic. In the capital of Santo Domingo, the airport recorded 2.43 inches (61.7 mm) of rain in the 24 hours ending at 8 a.m. EDT Saturday, bringing their 4-day total to 14.25 inches (361.9 mm). Peravia Province, located about 50 miles west of Santo Domingo (see video below posted by Volcaholic), recorded a 2-day rainfall amount of 6.22 inches (158 mm) at Bani, ending at 8 a.m. EDT Saturday. Blog commenter Reg R in Santo Domingo wrote in the Eye on the Storm blog comments this morning:
Insane, Melissa – even as it gets better organized and marches on toward Jamaica – is still dragging more rain over us in DR today after a break last night. Significant damage reported after this almost 5-day deluge and the metro Santo Domingo area still sluggish, reminds me of the early pandemic days. Getting ready for a major pothole fest with pavement on many streets to the brink. Hoping folks in Jamaica are spared from the worst, the unstoppable rain alone has been challenging so adding the storm surge and wind combo, quite a test to endure.
Track forecast for Melissa
Melissa is trapped in a region of light steering currents, sandwiched between a high-pressure system to the east and one to the northwest. However, the models are now in decent agreement Melissa will continue tracking slowly westward at less than 5 mph, just south of Jamaica, through Sunday night. A slow but sharp turn to the northeast across Jamaica and into eastern Cuba is expected on Monday, but the timing and position of that turn is impossible to pin down, with steering currents so weak. Most of the models show a direct hit for Jamaica sometime Monday or early Tuesday morning, but we’ve seen in the past how the high terrain of the island can play crazy tricks with the path of an approaching hurricane. The island of Taiwan in the Western Pacific also has this effect on approaching typhoons.
Regardless of the exact track, Melissa will bring multiple days of relentless torrential rains to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. The four-day rainfall forecast issued Saturday by NHC (Fig. 2) is truly concerning, with catastrophic flooding likely in many areas.
Intensity forecast for Melissa
Very favorable conditions for intensification are expected from Saturday through Tuesday. The atmosphere is moist, and wind shear is expected to be light to moderate, 5-15 knots. Melissa will be traversing waters with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of about 30 degrees Celsius (86°F), which are the second- to fourth-warmest SSTs on record for this time of year. Moreover, oceanic heat extends to great depths across the central Caribbean, which allows a slow-moving storm to strengthen without pulling up chillier water. Waters of 30 degrees Celsius (86°F) extend to a depth of 200 feet (60 meters) (see Bluesky post below).
NHC is predicting that Melissa will become a major hurricane by Sunday morning, peaking as a high-end Cat 4 with 155 mph winds on Monday morning as it approaches Jamaica. It is close to unprecedented for NHC to predict such rapid rates of intensification in a two- to three-day forecast. According to the 12Z Saturday run of the DTOPS model, Melissa had a 69% chance of rapidly intensifying by 35 mph by 8 a.m. EDT Sunday, and an 80% chance of rapidly intensifying by 65 mph by 8 a.m. EDT Monday (making it a Cat 4 with 130 mph winds). However, Melissa may not get as strong as predicted if it approaches close enough to Jamaica to be disrupted by the high terrain of the island.
The maximum potential intensity (MPI) of a tropical cyclone — the maximum strength a storm can achieve based on the existing atmospheric and oceanic conditions — is about 195 mph (315 km/h) for Melissa, according to the 12Z Saturday run of the SHIPS model. Melissa’s MPI is about 200-230 mph with a central pressure of 850-875 mb, according to a graphic available at the University of Wisconsin’s CIMSS. Given the moderate wind shear expected to affect Melissa, along with its very slow motion and potential interaction with the rugged terrain of Jamaica, the storm is unlikely to approach its maximum potential intensity, though.
Inland flood risk for Jamaica: very high
Flash flooding and mudslides from the 20-30 inches of rain predicted for Jamaica are the chief risk from Melissa, and pose a catastrophic threat. Posted below are graphics from the Pacific Disaster Center showing the areas at highest risk.
Storm surge risk for Jamaica: moderate in Kingston
Jamaica, in general, has low storm surge risk, since there are not a lot of low-lying coastal areas. But with NHC predicting 7-11 feet of inundation to the right of where the center makes landfall, the capital of Kingston may see destructive storm surge flooding if Melissa follows the current NHC forecast. Kingston’s Norman Manley International Airport is built on dredged material and imported fill, and the runways and terminal could flood to a depth of 3-6 feet in a Cat 3 hurricane, according to NHC storm surge risk maps (Fig. 5).
In 2004, Hurricane Ivan, which passed about 30 miles (50 km) south of central Jamaica as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds, caused total destruction of the sand dunes along the south side of the airport, inundating and blocking the connecting road to the mainland. This led to the complete shutdown of the airport and the inability of Port Royal residents to access the mainland. Hurricane Dean of 2007, which passed about 20 miles (35 km) south of central Jamaica as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph (235 km/h) winds, caused a similar impact, resulting in the shutdown of the airport. Since then, construction of the rock revetment along the south side of the airport has improved its capability to withstand a damaging storm surge.
Other storm-surge vulnerable places in Kingston include the Soapberry Wastewater Treatment Plant, Portmore Mall, Kingston Freeport Terminal, Nestlè Jamaica Limited, Jamworld Entertainment Center, the National Gallery of Jamaica, Petrojam Refinery, and Caribbean Maritime University. Not many residential areas are at risk of flooding in a Cat 3 storm, with the exception of a few low-lying areas on the west side of the city and in Port Royal (on the island connecting to the airport).
Jamaica’s costliest hurricane on record, Category 3 Hurricane Gilbert of 1988, inflicted damages of $1 billion ($2.7 billion 2025 USD), which was 26% of its $3.2 billion GDP at the time. Gilbert’s path from east to west along the length of the island did not generate a large storm surge along Jamaica’s south coast, where Kingston lies.
Long-range outlook for Melissa: Cuba and the Bahamas at risk
Depending upon how much of a favor Jamaica does for Cuba by disrupting Melissa, Cuba can expect to see Melissa make landfall at between Cat 2 and Cat 4 strength. Inland flooding and mudslides from Melissa’s torrential rains are likely to be the main hazard in Cuba, but damage from high winds and storm surge are also likely to be substantial, depending upon the exact track of the hurricane in relation to the island’s population centers. Cuba’s fragile electrical grid has endured five complete island-wide collapses in the past year, each one requiring about 2-3 days to recover from. Melissa will be a threat to take down the grid for a sixth time.
After crossing eastern Cuba, Melissa is likely to pass quickly through the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. This fast motion will limit the rains of the hurricane, but rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches (125-250 mm) are being shown over portions of the Bahamas by some model runs. Melissa will be weaker after its traverse of the rugged terrain of Cuba, and will likely be a Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricane in the Bahamas.
Later in the week, Melissa may be interacting with an extratropical storm predicted to form off the U.S. East Coast. The latest Google DeepMind ensemble forecast (Fig. 6) has a few of its members showing that this extratropical storm could turn Melissa (or its remnants) more to the north, resulting in a landfall in Atlantic Canada. However, these probabilities are low, and have been decreasing in the most recent model runs.
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Great Job Jeff Masters and Bob Henson & the Team @ Yale Climate Connections Source link for sharing this story.
