July keeps the torrid pace going in one of Earth’s hottest years on record » Yale Climate Connections

July 2025 was Earth’s third-warmest July in analyses of global weather data going back to 1850, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, or NCEI, reported August 12. NASA and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service also rated July 2025 as the third-warmest July on record, behind only 2024 and 2023. Data from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Berkeley Earth were not available at the time of this writing.

Global land areas had their 7th-warmest July on record in 2025, and global oceans had their 3rd-warmest July, according to NOAA. July was the 4th-warmest on record for Asia, tied for the 4th-warmest in Europe, and ranked 8th-warmest in Africa and 9th-warmest in the Caribbean region.

According to NOAA, the year-to-date period (January-July) has been the second-warmest on record for the globe, only 0.10 degrees Celsius (0.18°F) cooler than 2024. Based on statistical patterns drawn from prior monthly and annual data, NOAA is now giving this year a less-than-1% chance of winding up as the warmest year on record, but a greater-than-99% chance of being among the top-five warmest years.

19th-warmest July for the contiguous U.S.

During July, the average temperature in the contiguous U.S. was the 19th-warmest in national data going back to 1895. This is the 11th July in a row that came in warmer than the 20th-century average. It was the hottest July on record for Virginia and West Virginia, and it placed among the ten hottest on record for 20 of the 48 contiguous states, mostly across the South and East. The year-to-date is the 11th-warmest for the contiguous U.S. across 131 years of recordkeeping.

In terms of storminess, the month’s hallmark was the multiple local and regional episodes of destructive flash flooding, from New Mexico to New York. Foremost among those was the catastrophic flooding in central Texas in early July that took at least 138 lives, making it the nation’s deadliest flash flood event in 49 years. The month ranked as the 49th wettest July on record, and it placed among the top-ten wettest Julys in four states: Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, and Virginia. The states of Alabama, Maine, New Hampshire, and Utah had top-ten-driest Julys. The year-to-date is the 88th-wettest for the contiguous U.S. across 131 years of recordkeeping.

Read more: The deadliest floods in U.S. history

U.S. tornadoes in July numbered 96, with three being EF2 or stronger. The preliminary total of 1,402 U.S. tornadoes observed from January 1 to August 5 ranks as the third-highest year-to-date total since 2010, behind 2011 (1,999) and 2024 (1,512). There were no tornado deaths in July. The U.S.; the tornado death toll for the year so far is 68.

Neutral conditions (neither La Niña nor El Niño) prevail

The weak La Niña conditions in the Eastern Pacific that began in December 2024 ended in March, and neutral conditions are now present, NOAA reported in its July monthly discussion of the state of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. ENSO is a recurring ocean-and-atmosphere pattern that warms and cools the eastern tropical Pacific through El Niño and La Niña events that last from one to three years. Sea surface temperatures have cooled slightly across much of the central and eastern tropical Pacific over the last month, but conditions overall remain neutral.

According to NOAA’s July forecast, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely (56% chance) during August-October 2025. Thereafter, chances of La Niña conditions increase into the fall and winter 2025-26, but remain nearly equal to ENSO-neutral. For the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season (August-September-October), the July 18 forecast from the Columbia University International Research Institute for Climate and Society called for a 37% chance of La Niña, a 55% chance of ENSO-neutral, and an 8% chance of El Niño. El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity through an increase in wind shear, but La Niña conditions tend to have the opposite effect.

While El Niño events typically last only one year (usually from northern fall to northern spring, as in 2023-24), La Niña events often restrengthen or recur across two or even three years in a row, as was the case from mid-2020 to early 2023. Over the last two decades (2005-2024), the peak three months of hurricane season have included five El Niño periods, seven La Niña periods, and eight neutral periods.

Arctic sea ice: 4th-lowest July extent on record

Arctic sea ice in July 2025 had the fourth-lowest July extent in the 47-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, or NSIDC. The Arctic had its 7th-warmest July on record in 2025.

Antarctic sea ice extent in July was the third-lowest in the 47-year satellite record. Only 2023 and 2024 had lower July extents. The Antarctic was slightly colder than normal in July, with its lowest average for the month since 2016.

Notable global heat and cold marks for July 2025

Weather records expert Maximiliano Herrera documents world temperature extremes in remarkable detail and has provided us with the following info for July. Follow him on Bluesky: @extremetemps.bsky.social

• Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 52.8°C (127.0°F) at Shabankareh, Iran, July 19
• Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -23.7°C (-10.7°F) at Summit, Greenland, July 6
• Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 39.1°C (102.4°F) at Alvorada do Gurgueia  and Pedro Afonso, Brazil, July 20
• Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -82.0°C (-115.6°F) at Dome Fuji, Antarctica, July 24

Major weather stations in July: 217 all-time heat records, no all-time cold records

Among global stations with a record of at least 40 years, 217 set, not just tied, an all-time heat record in July; no stations set an all-time cold record:

Tabas (Iran) max. 50.0°C, July 2
Khor (Iran) max. 49.7°C, July 2
Bochum (Germany) max. 37.4°C, July 2
Barth (Germany) max. 35.7°C, July 2
Hiddensee-Vitte (Germany) max. 35.2°C, July 2
Holbek (Denmark) max. 34.0°C, July 2
Skalnate Pleso (Slovakia) max. 26.8°C, July 3
Parkhar (Tajikistan) max. 45.1°C, July 4
Ardakan (Iran) max. 47.5°C, July 4
Bafq (Iran) max. 49.3°C, July 4
Changyi (China) max. 41.5°C, July 5
Laizhou (China) max. 41.5°C, July 5
Zhucheng (China) max. 40.9°C, July 5
Gaomi (China) max. 40.8°C, July 5
Miluo (China) max. 40.8°C, July 5
Pingdu (China) max. 40.5°C, July 5
Xilian Island (China) max. 39.5°C, July 5
Xiangshui (China) max. 38.6°C, July 5
Chilas (Pakistan) max. 48.5°C, July 5
Lingbi (China) max. 41.0°C, July 6
Binhai (China) max. 39.4°C, July 6
Xiangshui (China) max. 39.2°C, July 6
Siyang (China) max. 39.2°C, July 6
Funing (China) max. 38.9°C, July 6
Jianhu (China) max. 38.7°C, July 6
Haiyang (China) max. 37.9°C, July 6
Ulchin (South Korea) max. 38.6°C, July 6
Gumi (South Korea) max. 38.3°C, July 7
Taiki (Japan) max. 36.3°C, July 7
Noboribetsu (Japan) max. 34.3°C, July 7
Higashichiki (Japan) max. 36.4°C, July 8
Antu (China) max. 36.8°C, July 12
Izium (Ukraine) max. 39.9°C, July 12
Aviemore (United Kingdom) max. 32.2°C, July 12
Tihoreck (Russia) max. 40.4°C, July 13
Buholmarasa (Norway) max. 31.2°C, July 14
Hoting (Sweden) max. 31.9°C, July 15
Skelletfea (Sweden) max. 32.5°C, July 15
Hjarðarland (Iceland) max. 29.5°C, July 15
Hella (Iceland) max. 27.8°C, July 15
Vatnsskarðshólar (Iceland) max. 24.3°C, July 15
Stórhöfði (Iceland) max. 22.2°C, July 15
Höfn Hornafjörður (Iceland) max. 25.4°C, July 15
Meixian (China) max. 42.7°C, July 15
Zhouzhi (China) max. 42.7°C, July 15
Baojixian (China) max. 42.3°C, July 15
Jinghe (China) max. 42.3°C, July 15
Lintong (China) max. 42.2°C, July 15
Qindu (China) max. 42.0°C, July 15
Baoji (China) max. 41.8°C, July 15
Fengxiang (China) max. 40.5°C, July 15
Yaoxian (China) max. 39.7°C, July 15
Chunhua (China) max. 39.4°C, July 15
Tongchuan (China) max. 37.9°C, July 15

Sanxia (China) max. 43.7°C, July 16
Xingping (China) max. 43.1 °C, July 16
Badong (China) max. 42.9 °C, July 16
Zigui (China) max. 42.9 °C, July 16
Pucheng (China) max. 42.1 °C, July 16
Gucheng (China) max. 42.1 °C, July 16
Qishan (China) max. 41.7 °C, July 16
Mianxian (China) max. 41.5 °C, July 16
Hanzhong (China) max. 41.1 °C, July 16
Shimian (China) max. 41,0 °C, July 16
Zaoyang (China) max. 40.9 °C, July 16
Xiaxian (China) max. 40.9 °C, July 16
Yiling (China) max.40.9 °C, July 16
Nanzheng (China) max. 40.6 °C, July 16
Yicheng (China) max. 40.4 °C, July 16
Gangu (China) max. 38.3 °C, July 16
Shennongjia (China) max. 38.0  °C, July 16
Jiuzhaigou (China) max. 37.8 °C, July 16
Lichuan (China) max. 36.4°C, July 16
Yingjing (China) max. 37.6°C, July 17
Vaernes (Norway) max. 34.5°C, July 17
Orland (Norway) max. 32.7°C, July 17
Halten Fyr (Norway) max. 27.2°C, July 17
Sognefjell (Norway) max. 21.3°C, July 17
Milin (China) max. 29.9°C, July 18
Suo (China) max. 26.8°C, July 18
Phari (China) max. 18.6°C, July 19
Turpan Dongkan (China) max. 48.7°C, July 20
Sandane (Norway) max. 31.9°C, July 20
Sklinna (Norway) max. 28.1°C, July 21
Sundalsora (Norway) max. 33.1°C, July 21
Ichinoseki (Japan) max. 38.3°C, July 22
Ononimachi (Japan) max. 36.3°C, July 22
Nordoyan (Norway) max. 27.6°C, July 22
Bihoro (Japan) max. 38.2°C, July 23
Kawayu (Japan) max. 36.6°C, July 23
Shibecha (Japan) max. 35.2°C, July 23
Nakateshibetu (Japan) max. 36.6°C, July 23
Ota (Japan) max. 34.9°C, July 23
Otsu (Japan) max. 36.9°C, July 23
Shirabi (Japan) max. 33.8°C, July 23
Shiogama (Japan) max. 35.9°C, July 23
Cannakale (Turkey) max. 40.5°C, July 23
Ikutora (Japan) max. 35.0°C, July 24
Eniwa Island (Japan) max. 34.5 °C, July 24
Lake Shikotsu (Japan) max. 32.0 °C, July 24
Kitami (Japan) max. 39.0 °C, July 24
Koshimizu (Japan) max. 37.8 °C, July 24
Rubeshibe (Japan) max. 37.6 °C, July 24
Sakaino (Japan) max. 38.0 °C, July 24
Bihoro (Japan) max. 38.3 °C, July 24
Tsubetsu (Japan) max. 38.4 °C, July 24
Shibetsu (Japan) max. 36.4 °C, July 24
Kamishihoro (Japan) max. 37.2 °C, July 24
Shintoku (Japan) max. 37.3 °C, July 24
Shikaoi (Japan) max. 37.4 °C, July 24
Komaba (Japan) max. 38.2 °C, July 24
Morino (Japan) max. 33.8 °C, July 24
Yoneyama (Japan) max. 37.5 °C, July 24
Iwamizawa (Japan) max. 36.1°C, July 25
Yakumo (Japan) max. 34.1 °C, July 25
Kawatabi (Japan) max. 36.7 °C, July 25
Moniwa (Japan) max. 36.8 °C, July 25
Kawauchi (Japan) max. 36.8 °C, July 25
Ama (Japan) max. 36.4°C, July 25
Silopi (Turkey) max. 50.5°C, July 25: New National record high for Turkey
Batman (Turkey) max. 46.8°C, July 25
Adyaman (Turkey) max. 46.3°C, July 25
Antalya AP (Turkey) max. 46.1°C, July 25
Mardin (Turkey) max. 43.9°C, July 25
Sirnak (Turkey) max. 42.3°C, July 25
Vlore (Albania) max. 42.4°C, July 25
Konitsa (Greece) max. 43.8°C, July 25
Argostoli (Greece) max. 41.0°C, July 25
Kline (Kosovo) max. 42.5°C, July 25: New national record high for Kosovo
Kashimadai (Japan) max. 37.2°C, July 26
Nagai (Japan) max. 37.3 °C, July 26
Fukushima (Japan) max. 39.2 °C, July 26
Koriyama (Japan) max. 37.3 °C, July 26
Onomiimachi (Japan) max. 37.3 °C, July 26
Ishikawa (Japan) max. 38.4 °C, July 26
Higashi (Japan) max. 37.2 °C, July 26
Karatsu (Japan) max. 37.5 °C, July 26
Funehiki (Japan) max. 36.1°C, July 26
Yining (China) max. 40.6°C, July 26
Girokaster (Albania) max. 43.8°C, July 26
Shkoder (Albania) max. 43.0°C, July 26
Krusevac (Serbia) max. 44.0°C, July 26
Banatski Karlovac (Serbia) max. 42.0°C, July 26
Montana (Bulgaria) max. 43.5°C, July 26
Andravida (Greece) max. 41.4°C, July 26
Mihama (Japan) max. 38.4°C, July 27
Taegwallyong (South Korea) max. 33.2°C, July 27
Burdur (Turkey) max. 41.8°C, July 27
Karabuk (Turkey) max. 44.7°C, July 27
Kirkuk (Iraq) max. 51.0°C, July 27
Tampa (Florida, USA) max. 37.8°C, July 27
Beitashan (China) max. 34.7°C, July 28
Cankiri (Turkey) max. 42.8°C, July 28
Okunakayama (Japan) max. 33.6°C, July 29
Kuzumaki (Japan) max. 35.3 °C, July 29
Kouma (Japan) max. 36.4 °C, July 29
Kawai (Japan) max. 37.6 °C, July 29
Oosako (Japan) max. 37.1 °C, July 29
Kitakami (Japan) max. 38.3 °C, July 29
Esashi (Japan) max. 38.2 °C, July 29
Senmaya (Japan) max. 37.0 °C, July 29
Furukawa (Japan) max. 37.5 °C, July 29
Mukaimachi (Japan) max. 36.9 °C, July 29
Aterazawa (Japan) max. 37.3 °C, July 29
Takahata (Japan) max. 38.7 °C, July 29
Yonezawa (Japan) max. 38.5 °C, July 29
Kitakata (Japan) max. 38.4 °C, July 29
Nishiaizu (Japan) max. 37.3 °C, July 29
Inawashiro (Japan) max. 34.6 °C, July 29
Wakamatsu (Japan) max. 38.8 °C, July 29
Kuroiso (Japan) max. 35.5°C, July 29
Ogaki (Japan) max. 39.6 °C, July 29
Ichinomiya (Japan) max. 38.7 °C, July 29
Mita (Japan) max. 38.5 °C, July 29
Oasa (Japan) max. 36.5 °C, July 29
Akana (Japan) max. 35.6°C, July 29
Mazongshan (China) max. 36.6°C, July 29
Sukang (Brunei) max. 39.2°C, July 29: New national record high for Brunei
Sibu (Malaysia) max. 37.4°C, July 29
Tokat (Turkey) max. 47.2°C, July 29
Yozgat (Turkey) max. 39.0°C, July 30
Kakunodate (Japan) max. 38.1 °C, July 30
Yuzawa (Japan) max. 37.4 °C, July 30
Karikawa (Japan) max. 37.8 °C, July 30
Tadami (Japan) max. 37.1 °C, July 30
Iijima (Japan) max. 36.4 °C, July 30
Sekigahara (Japan) max. 38.2 °C, July 30
Shigaraki (Japan) max. 36.7 °C, July 30
Fukuchiyama (Japan) max. 40.6 °C, July 30
Miyama (Japan) max. 39.1 °C, July 30
Kyotanabe (Japan) max. 39.2 °C, July 30
Nose (Japan) max. 37.9 °C, July 30
Wadayama (Japan) max. 39.1 °C, July 30
Ikuno (Japan) max. 38.6 °C, July 30
Kaibara(Japan) max. 41.2 °C, July 30: New national record high for Japan
Fukusaki (Japan) max. 39.1 °C, July 30
Nishiwaki (Japan) max. 40.0 °C, July 30
Sanda (Japan) max. 39.0 °C, July 30
Chiya (Japan) max. 35.4 °C, July 30
Nagi (Japan) max. 39.4 °C, July 30
Kuze (Japan) max. 40.3 °C, July 30
Tsuyama (Japan) max. 39.1 °C, July 30
Kasaoka (Japan) max. 38.4 °C, July 30
Miyoshi (Japan) max. 38.8 °C, July 30
Yuki (Japan) max. 35.7 °C, July 30
Fuchu (Japan) max. 39.2 °C, July 30
Kakeya (Japan) max. 38.3 °C, July 30
Yokota (Japan) max. 37.5 °C, July 30
Kawamoto (Japan) max. 39.2 °C, July 30
Mizuho (Japan) max. 37.4 °C, July 30
Takinomiya (Japan) max. 38.5 °C, July 30
Hiketa (Japan) max. 37.7°C, July 30
Jiali (China) max. 23.0°C, July 31
Fukuwatari (Japan) max. 39.1°C, July 31
Takahashi (Japan) max. 40.4°C, July 31
Hirose (Japan) max. 39.3°C, July 31
Elazig (Turkey) max. 42.8°C, July 31

Six all-time national/territorial heat records beaten or tied as of the end of July

• Maldives: 35.8°C (96.4°F) at Hanimadhoo, Feb. 27 (previous record: 35.1°C (95.2°F) at Hanimadhoo, March 24, 2024
• Togo: 44.0°C (111.2°F) at Mango, March 16 and April 5 (tie)
• Turkey: 50.5°C (122.9°F) at Silopi, July 25
• Kosovo: 42.5°C (108.5°F) at Kline, July 25
• Brunei: 39.2°C (102.6°F) at Sukang, July 29
• Japan: 41.2°C (106.2°F) at Kaibara, July 30

Forty-six additional monthly national/territorial heat records beaten or tied as of the end of July

In addition to the six all-time national/territorial records set so far in 2025 (plus one nation that tied its record in two separate months), 46 nations or territories have set or tied monthly all-time heat records as of the end of July 2025, for a total of 53 monthly heat records:

• January (6): Cocos Islands. French Southern Territories, Faroe Islands, Maldives, Northern Marianas, Martinique
• February (3): Northern Marianas, Argentina, Togo
• March (8): French Southern Territories, Algeria, Saba, South Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Mauritius, Cocos Islands
• April (11): French Southern Territories, British Indian Ocean Territory, Latvia, Estonia, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Ireland
• May (5): French Southern Territories, Iceland, Kyrgyzstan, China, Qatar
• June (7): Cocos Islands, Hong Kong, Slovenia, Spain, Portugal, Jersey, French Southern Territories
• July (6): Maldives, Ukraine, Honduras, French Southern Territories, US Virgin Islands, Malaysia

One nation set an all-time monthly cold record in 2025: Qatar in January.

Hemispherical and continental temperature records in 2025

• Highest temperature ever recorded in South America in February: 46.5°C (115.7°F) at Rivadavia, Argentina, February 4
• Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in South America in February: 30.8°C (87.4°F) at Catamarca, Argentina, February 10.