MLB Roundtable: Mariners or Astros in AL West? Yankees and Mets in Trouble?

Could we really see no playoff baseball in the Big Apple? 

That seemed improbable earlier this summer, but the Yankees and Mets are struggling to keep up in their respective wild-card races. Plenty of games left before the postseason starts on Sept. 30, but FOX Sports MLB reporters Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar check in on the biggest topics this week. 

1. Can the Mariners, with Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez, do enough to win the AL West? Or will the Astros nab the division for the fifth year in a row, and eighth time in nine years? 

Kavner: I think Seattle is the most dangerous and complete team in the American League, and I think they finally have the pieces to win their first division title since 2001. The Mariners look energized by their big deadline, going 9-2 in their first 11 games of August. The additions of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez filled their most glaring needs, and while they’re still waiting for Suárez to get going, they finally have a deep lineup to pair with their electric pitching staff. Now, that doesn’t guarantee anything. The Astros have exceeded expectations this year, especially considering all the injuries they’ve weathered, and they should get a lot of those pieces back down the stretch. There are just a lot more question marks in Houston than there are in Seattle. 

Thosar: This has to be the Mariners’ year. They finally look like a complete team, but I’m curious to see how they perform the rest of this month with a tougher schedule on deck. Seattle is set to play the Mets, Phillies, and Padres in the next 12 days, with only one off day in that stretch. If the Mariners can get through that gauntlet with the same tenacity they’ve shown of late (winning 10 of their last 13 games), then I’m more of a believer that they can really win the division this year. Another thing to note is that, this season, both the Mariners and Astros have nearly identical records against teams above .500. Houston is 35-27, and Seattle is 36-26. In the AL, only the Blue Jays have more wins (38) against teams above .500. That starts to matter in a pennant race, and it will be interesting to see if the Mariners or Astros will hang on when the stretch gets more difficult.

2. Speaking of Suárez, should there be any concern about his play, or is this more just a matter of a small sample?

Kavner: It’s too small a sample to panic about, especially with Seattle still thriving despite his slow start, and it’s possible he’s trying to do too much right now in an effort to make an immediate impact and whiffing more in the process. But it is at least something to monitor, especially considering his pedestrian numbers the last time he was a Mariner, how hard it is to hit at T-Mobile Park and the fact that deadline additions don’t have much time to get settled in. It’s been ugly for the first two weeks, but this can be part of the Suárez experience. In his first 11 games last month, he was hitting .167 with 17 strikeouts in 42 at-bats. Over the next six games, he homered seven times. All it takes is one huge game — he has six multi-homer games this year — and those numbers will look a lot different. I’d expect one of those to happen soon. Just the threat of Suárez’s power adds more to the lineup than what they had previously. 

Thosar: It’s a little too early to really be concerned about Suarez’s performance in Seattle, particularly if it’s related to getting settled in, but I am beginning to wonder if he’s hiding an injury. Suarez was hit on his left hand by a pitch from Shane Smith in the eighth inning of the All-Star Game, of all places, and then about 10 days later, he was hit on his right hand by a 95.6 mph pitch from Tigers right-hander Will Vest. Even though X-rays came back negative in both instances, Suarez’s numbers have dipped since the All-Star break. It could be worth keeping an eye on, but I’m still expecting Suarez to break out at the plate sooner rather than later. Even though the Mariners would love to win the division, his impact will be greatly felt during the playoffs, so he still has time to either heal up or get into a groove (or both) for what Seattle hopes will be a deep October run.

3. The Guardians are a half-game back of the Yankees for the final AL wild card spot. Can Cleveland capitalize on the Bronx Bombers’ struggles? 

Kavner: On July 28, the Guardians lost for the fourth time in five games to fall two games under .500 on the same day that star closer Emmanuel Clase was placed on leave amid MLB’s gambling investigation. Maybe that was rock bottom. Since then, they’ve won 10 of their last 13 games. They traded away Shane Bieber as he continued the final stages of his Tommy John recovery, but they elected against a full sell-off at the deadline. Right now, that decision looks prudent. Even without Clase, there’s still plenty of weaponry at the back end of the bullpen to hold opponents down. (In August alone, Cade Smith is 3-0, 2-for-2 in save chances and hasn’t allowed a run). As bad as it has been lately in the Bronx, there’s still probably too much talent on this Yankees team to miss the playoffs. But while the Rangers fumble their wild-card opportunity, the Guardians, with an offense powered by Jose Ramirez and Kyle Manzardo, aren’t going away. 

Thosar: Who could’ve expected Cleveland to be breathing down the Yankees’ neck when the Bronx Bombers had a seven-game lead in the AL East at the end of May? But New York is squandering its opportunity to dominate the AL, and the Guardians held off from a full-blow sell off at the trade deadline to stay in this thing. Cleveland is already capitalizing, winning 11 of its last 14 games and six straight series victories, while the Yankees are just trying to play a single game without committing a crucial error. The Guardians’ run has been impressive, no doubt, especially when you consider the absence of closer Emmanuel Clase and how much the supporting cast on offense has stepped up, all while Jose Ramirez continues to be the franchise’s best player ever. But, Cleveland has some question marks in the rotation, and I’m not convinced the offense can carry the club down the stretch. It still seems like the Yankees are too talented, and one hot stretch away from being dominant and burying the Guardians. 

4. The Mets, like the Yankees, have floundered and are five games from the Phillies in the NL East. Should there be concern at this point that they won’t be a wild card team?

Kavner: Considering the Reds are only half-game behind the Mets for the final wild-card spot and the Phillies have built a five-game cushion in the division, there should definitely be concern in Queens. Now, I expect the offense to find another gear soon, and I ultimately think the Mets will hold onto a wild-card spot, but this falloff — 12 losses in 14 games — is concerning. I trust this rebuilt bullpen to be one of the better groups in the league, but that won’t matter if the Mets are always playing from behind. The starting rotation has fallen dramatically back down to earth after exceeding expectations for so much of the year. David Peterson, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes each have an ERA above 7.00 in August. Kodai Senga (5.40 this month) hasn’t been much better. As a team, the Mets have a rotation ERA over 7.00 in August. There are some prospects on the farm who could provide a boost, and prospect Nolan McLean will get his chance this weekend, but until one or two of the trusted veteran starters find their form, it’s going to be hard to escape this funk. 

Thosar: It would be a complete disaster in Queens if the Reds get the final wild-card spot over the Juan Soto-powered Mets. Unfortunately, the Mets offense hasn’t shown enough consistency this season to really believe in them. Mets fans can count on one hand how many times Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Soto have all come through at the top of the lineup. When Alonso is hitting, Lindor and Soto are ice cold. When Lindor is hitting, Alonso and Soto are quiet. And now, we’re reaching the end of Soto’s first season in Queens and he still hasn’t had his Mets moment, coming up clutch for the club the way he did countless times for the Yankees last season. When Soto is on, he’s one of the best hitters in the game — capable of carrying an offense to the finish line. But that’s just not the version of himself he’s been this year. Combine those concerns with the troubles of New York’s rotation, being unable to pitch deep into games, and there is legitimate reason to believe the Mets might fumble a playoff spot. 

5. Rafael Devers is trending back upward, and he has four homers in August. Is he finally settling in with the Giants, albeit in a much more difficult park for hitters?

Kavner: It certainly looks that way. He has an OPS over .900 in August and, even more promising, an OPS over 1.000 at home this month. He’s not chasing nearly as often as he did early in his Giants tenure, and his expected slugging percentage has almost doubled from July to August. His hard-hit rate has also climbed as his whiff rate has descended. Basically, he looks a lot more like the player the Giants expected to be adding. That’s encouraging for the future in San Francisco, but similar to what we’re seeing now from Michael Harris II in Atlanta, it also feels like too little, too late, in terms of changing his team’s fortunes this season at 5.5 games back of a playoff spot. 

Thosar: If Devers is finally settling in (and it does look that way), it doesn’t matter much for a Giants team that’s three games under .500 and has a 3.3% chance of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs. So while it’s encouraging to see Devers find his groove at the plate, at this point, that only gives the team a better idea of how to structure its offense to maximize its potential for next season.  

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
 

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