Up to five major hurricanes, classified as category 3 or higher, are predicted to form in the Atlantic Ocean before the end of November, according to the latest forecast from the National Weather Service (NWS).
The weather service, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), predicts an “above average season.” Matthew Rosencrans, the lead hurricane season forecaster for the NWS, said it’s already ahead of schedule in terms of named storms.
“The fourth named storm is normally by August 15, and your first hurricane is normally by August 11,” Rosencrans told Houston Public Media. “So we’re ahead on named storms, but we are likely to be behind on hurricanes.”
Through the end of hurricane season Nov. 30, the agency is predicting between 5-9 hurricanes, 2-5 of which are forecast to be category 3 or above, meaning wind speeds greater than 110 miles per hour. Between 13-18 named storms are expected throughout the season, four of which have already formed: Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter. Tropical Storm Chantal was the only storm to make landfall so far, bringing deadly floods to North Carolina.
The prediction is largely in line with the agency’s prior estimates in May. Rosencrans said the above-average season emphasizes the need for preparedness before a storm hits.
“It’s knowing your risk,” Rosencrans said. “So if you’re near the immediate coastline, storm surge, flooding and winds. If you’re a little bit inland, it’s really that heavy rain threat. … Get your kit ready. Make a plan.”
He also urged Texans to monitor reliable weather reports from sources like hurricanes.gov and the NWS forecast office for the Houston and Galveston region, which posts updates on social media platforms like X. In the event an evacuation is ordered, Rosencrans urged affected residents to leave as soon as possible.
In addition to the threat posed by the storm itself, the aftermath can strain emergency resources and limit remaining residents’ access to healthcare or food.
“We really ask people to really heed those evacuation decisions,” Rosencrans said. “They are not made lightly, and they are really made to keep people safe. We can rebuild stuff. We cannot rebuild people.”
NOAA and Harris County Precinct 4 offer information on evacuation routes, emergency kit checklists and local resources relevant to the Houston region.
John Nielson-Gammon, the state climatologist and a professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M, said the main threats brought by a hurricane are storm surge, high winds and heavy rain, which can come from storms at various levels of severity. To prepare, Texans can check their home’s vulnerability to flooding through FEMA’s flood map service center.
“Generally speaking, it doesn’t really matter what the forecast is, because you only care about the one hurricane that may or may not make landfall close to where you are,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “Hurricanes bring lots of different threats, so it’s important to prepare for each one, or at least have a plan for each one.”
Fluctuations in staffing
The updated forecast comes at a turbulent time for the National Weather Service, which has lost around 600 employees in previous months following layoffs of more than 100 probationary employees and widespread acceptance of early retirement or federal buyout offers from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). On Aug. 6, it was announced that the Trump administration reversed course and would permit the rehiring of up to 450 positions at the agency.
Rosencrans did not comment on any adverse effects staffing shortages may have had.
“We are staffed to meet our mission right now,” Rosencrans said. “We will be there to issue the watches and warnings and keep people safe throughout this hurricane season. So it’s all hands on deck, and let’s go.”
Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the National Weather Service Employee Organization, a federal labor union representing around 3,700 employees, said the rehiring decision is a major achievement for the agency and the Trump administration. When paired with the NWS’ recent exemption from federal hiring freezes, its designation as a public safety agency and the decision to authorize the agency to hire employees directly, Fahy said the agency can begin the rehiring process.
“All of that has massively positive implications for the National Weather Service, for them to restaff critically understaffed offices across the United States,” Fahy said. “And there are several places where we do have, indeed, critically understaffed offices that need personnel.”
Vacancies at forecast offices across the country affect flood predictions along coastlines and rivers, weather forecasts and aviation advisories issued to the Federal Aviation Administration. In the Houston-Galveston office, meteorology roles were 30% vacant as of mid-July.
Previously fired probationary employees, including meteorologists, will not receive preferential treatment when applying for NWS positions, Fahy said, though their prior experience could give them a leg up in a competitive hiring market.
The exemption and designation have been proposed in bills authored by Republican and Democratic lawmakers in both chambers of Congress, attempting to enshrine the protections into statute to protect NWS employees in the future.
“The mission of the National Weather Service, a mission that everybody takes personally, deeply and seriously, is the protection of life and property,” Fahy said. “It’s about saving people’s lives, period. So it’s a very personal and it’s a very honored profession … because we help protect communities across the country.”
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