New Uncertainty Shadows Gaza’s Cease-Fire Deal

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at Phase 2 of the Israel-Hamas cease-fire deal, heightened South Asian tensions following a suicide bombing in Pakistan, and parliamentary elections in Iraq.

A Precarious Phase 2

It’s been one month since the Israel-Hamas cease-fire deal in Gaza went into effect, and world leaders are now turning to the second, far more complex phase of the U.S.-brokered peace framework. These conversations kicked off in earnest on Tuesday, when G-7 foreign ministers gathered in Ontario, Canada, to hash out how to carry out the next stage. But as Phase 2 provides no timelines or mechanisms for implementation, experts worry that peace efforts could break down.

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at Phase 2 of the Israel-Hamas cease-fire deal, heightened South Asian tensions following a suicide bombing in Pakistan, and parliamentary elections in Iraq.

A Precarious Phase 2

It’s been one month since the Israel-Hamas cease-fire deal in Gaza went into effect, and world leaders are now turning to the second, far more complex phase of the U.S.-brokered peace framework. These conversations kicked off in earnest on Tuesday, when G-7 foreign ministers gathered in Ontario, Canada, to hash out how to carry out the next stage. But as Phase 2 provides no timelines or mechanisms for implementation, experts worry that peace efforts could break down.

Under the second phase of the Gaza cease-fire deal, Israel must withdraw farther from the so-called yellow line until it fully leaves the territory, Hamas must completely disarm to allow for a transitional authority to govern Gaza, and a multinational security force must deploy to the area to take over from the Israeli military. However, several obstacles stand in the way, including Hamas refusing to relinquish its weapons; Israel rejecting any involvement of the Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the occupied West Bank; and uncertainty over the makeup of the multinational force.

“We’re still working out ideas,” Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said this month. “Everybody wants this conflict over. All of us want the same endgame here. Question is: How do we make it work?”

According to private documents obtained by Politico, several Trump administration officials have expressed doubts that the peace deal’s second phase can be implemented. In a presentation given to U.S. Central Command and members of the newly created Civil-Military Coordination Center last month, experts shared concerns that the multinational security initiative planned for Gaza may not be able to be deployed, citing lack of commitments from foreign countries and lingering questions over who will ultimately oversee Gaza’s governance.

The slideshow also pointed to evidence of Hamas “reasserting authority and filling the security vacuum through coercive enforcement [and] policing.” U.S. officials met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday to discuss these concerns as well as what to do about a group of around 200 Hamas fighters who remain in tunnels beneath the southern Gaza city of Rafah, which is under Israeli control. Hamas has demanded that Israel grant the trapped fighters safe passage to the part of Gaza not under Israel’s control, but so far, Israel has refused. The resulting stalemate has become a flash point that is threatening to undermine the cease-fire.

According to an assessment in the private presentation, as of Oct. 20, the Israeli military controls 53 percent of Gaza. However, 95 percent of the enclave’s population lives in the remaining 47 percent, and Hamas has already redeployed 7,000 “security personnel” to these areas. Without a push to have Israel fully withdraw from Gaza, European officials told Reuters that the territory could end up partitioned, with Israel controlling a limited area and Hamas ruling the rest.

“We cannot have a fragmentation of Gaza,” Safadi added, as such a de facto state could lead to years of separation and limit reconstruction to just the Israeli-controlled areas.

Still, the Trump administration remains publicly optimistic about the deal’s prospects—and privately committed to significant U.S. involvement in the region, including with security provisions and economic reconstruction.

“We’ve got to deal with the challenges and make sure they [Hamas] don’t unravel this,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last month. “So, I’m not worried about it, but we’re aware that these are challenges that we have to confront,” adding that “if this was easy, it would have been done 30 years ago.”

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What We’re Following

“State of war.” A suicide bomber killed at least 12 people and wounded 27 others in Islamabad on Tuesday in the first attack on civilians in the Pakistani capital in a decade. Although no group has claimed responsibility thus far, the government of Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has accused neighboring Afghanistan and India of complicity in the attack.

“We are in a state of war,” Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said. “Bringing this war to Islamabad is a message from Kabul, to which Pakistan has the full power to respond.” Afghanistan and India have denied involvement.

Heightened tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan began last month, when Islamabad launched airstrikes on Afghanistan over accusations that Kabul was sheltering Pakistani militants, such as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, that have orchestrated attacks on Pakistanis, including one at a school near the Afghan border on Monday.

Pakistan has also accused longtime rival India of supporting Pakistani militants in Afghanistan, with the two engaging in a four-day war in May following a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. (An explosion killed at least eight people at a popular tourist site in New Delhi on Monday, though authorities are still investigating whether the incident was an attack.)

Going to the polls. Iraq held parliamentary elections on Tuesday, during which an alliance of parties led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s Furatayn Movement was forecasted to win the most seats but fall short of a majority. This means that the following weeks or even months may well see negotiations among Sunni, Shiite, and Kurdish groups to form a coalition government and choose a prime minister; some of Sudani’s former political allies have said they hope to form a coalition to prevent Sudani from obtaining a second term.

More than 7,700 candidates from 114 party lists are running for a spot in the country’s 329-seat legislature. This year, a raft of young people are among those seeking office in the hopes of reforming a system that many Iraqis have lost faith in due to systemic corruption, high unemployment, and poor state services.

However, a boycott by the Sadrist Movement, led by influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, has hampered public engagement. “Sadr City feels almost like a lockdown because of Muqtada al-Sadr’s call for his followers to stay home,” one Iraqi voter told The Associated Press. The country’s last parliamentary election in 2021 saw record-low turnout, hitting below 41 percent, and this year’s registration numbers predicted Tuesday’s turnout to be even lower. The vote’s preliminary results are expected to be announced in the next two days, with the final tally expected next week.

Oil cooperation. Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev at the Kremlin on Tuesday to discuss the fallout of U.S. sanctions on Moscow’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. Both corporations have significant holdings in Kazakhstan, a major oil exporter itself that transports most of its crude through Russia.

Their meeting comes less than a week after U.S. President Donald Trump welcomed the leaders of five Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, to the White House in an effort to bolster the United States’ sway in the mineral-rich region and hamper Russian and Chinese leadership there. During that meeting, Trump announced that Kazakhstan will be joining the U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords.

Still, though, the former Soviet state isn’t giving up on its friendship with Russia. During the two-day state visit, Putin and Tokayev are expected to sign a joint declaration elevating their countries’ ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership and alliance, as the two nations commit to greater energy, logistics, and cultural cooperation.

Odds and Ends

As U.S. shoppers gear up for their Black Friday purchases, consumers in China are capping off a weekslong shopping spree. Tuesday marked the end of Singles’ Day, an online shopping bonanza that this year began on Oct. 9 and is aimed at encouraging bachelors and bachelorettes to treat themselves. Last year, the value of goods sold during the Singles’ Day shopping period totaled $202 billion—nearly five times the amount that U.S. shoppers spent during Cyber Week in 2024.