Initially, California’s billions of dollars in solar subsidies and suite of supporting policies couldn’t overcome the state’s gas dependency. The solar systems cranked out excess power through the sunny hours, much of which got curtailed for lack of simultaneous demand, then California turned to fossil fuels to keep the lights on at night. That addiction at times overpowered the state’s environmental ethos: California even opted in 2020 to waive enforcement of a regulation protecting marine life because it would have shuttered a number of coastal gas plants that the grid wasn’t ready to lose, despite having a decade to prepare for the rule.
Such desperation gave temporary succor to solar skeptics and gas boosters. But when an energy system starts to change, snapshots in time are less instructive than the trend lines. And California’s trend lines have been pointing in one direction.
While the state hasn’t been building new gas generation, it has connected gigawatts of new solar and batteries each year. These resources are nearly free to operate once built, while gas plant owners have to buy fuel to combust and keep complex machinery in fine working order. And the price of gas has been going up, amid greater demand both at home (due to data center expansion) and abroad (with liquefied exports going to the highest bidder). Now California’s gas plants have more competition in the peak hours from cheaper, cleaner resources; they’re getting squeezed toward fewer hours of intense demand.
But it would be a mistake to think that these trends stop at the Sierra Nevada. Indeed, these patterns are playing out nationally: Very little new gas capacity is getting built, quite a lot of solar and batteries are, and gas prices are going up.
Some regions allow developers to respond nimbly to these trends, namely Texas, which indeed has leapt ahead of California in its pace of solar and storage installations. Other regions obstruct such dynamism and face the consequences, like the mid-Atlantic wholesale markets run by PJM, where skyrocketing capacity auctions are pushing costs to crisis levels.
California’s grid overhaul has been a long time coming, and one lesson here is that big changes — like redesigning the energy system for the world’s fourth largest economy — take time. But other states won’t have to wait as long: They can tap into a mature supply chain that scaled up thanks to California and other early adopters, plus the industrial expertise to design and manage large solar construction efforts and the financing options de-risked by years of data from earlier projects.
The federal government is trying to stymie renewables however it can. But California is demonstrating the rewards for getting solar to escape velocity, and that momentum is set to carry forward in the coming years.
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Great Job Julian Spector & the Team @ Canary Media Source link for sharing this story.
