In the western Pacific, there is a special name for high-end Category 4 and 5 typhoons with winds exceeding 150 mph (240 km/h): super typhoons. No equivalent terminology exists in the Atlantic for “super hurricanes.” But perhaps there should be, because these strongest of the strong storms are an increasing threat to the viability of living along the Caribbean, as they are expected to become increasingly common because of climate change.
The latest super hurricane: Melissa
After Melissa made landfall Oct. 28 in Jamaica as a Category 5 superstorm with 185 mph (300 km/h) winds — and then ravaged eastern Cuba at Category 3 strength — the full scope of its impact on the Caribbean is beginning to emerge. As of Nov. 12, Melissa was being blamed for at least 103 deaths: 45 in Jamaica (with 15 missing), 43 in Haiti, four in the Dominican Republic, four in Panama, four in the U.S., and three in Cuba.
The damage to western Jamaica was catastrophic, and preliminary damage estimates are in the multiple billions of dollars, representing a significant fraction of Jamaica’s $20 billion GDP. Property intelligence company Cotality estimates total damage in Jamaica will rise to $2-$5 billion, about 10-25% of the country’s GDP. Other estimates are higher. Kishan Khoday, resident representative for the U.N. Development Program, told journalists that initial estimates of damage were up to 30% of GDP, “a figure that’s expected to rise.”
In the short term, Jamaica will suffer from food shortages, since the hurricane’s worst damage occurred in St. Elizabeth Parish, the nation’s breadbasket. A Bloomberg News analysis found that in the western part of the country, at least 40% of buildings and roads suffered damage. According to Aon, at least 28,000 buildings were destroyed, damaged, or potentially damaged in Jamaica. This included around 6,400 destroyed homes, mostly in Jamaica’s Westmoreland and St. Elizabeth parishes. In Cuba, 60,000 buildings were destroyed, damaged, or potentially damaged (a larger number than in Jamaica, likely because Melissa’s impact zone in Cuba was more extensively developed).
Caribbean hurricanes can cause huge GDP hits
A table of the most expensive hurricanes to affect each nation/territory/island in the Atlantic (Fig. 1) reveals a disturbing fact: Over 30 have suffered a storm costing more than 5% of GDP, and 13 have seen losses of at least 100% of GDP. The large majority of these extreme losses were from super hurricanes like Irma (2017), Maria (2017), Ivan (2004), and Hattie (1961). Such massive hits to a poor nation’s economy can take over a decade to recover from. With climate change expected to make the strongest hurricanes stronger, we should expect poor Caribbean nations to start taking massive hits from super hurricanes before full recovery from the previous one. This will fundamentally threaten the viability of living in some of these places, unless some serious adaptation efforts are undertaken to prepare for the coming superstorms.
Landfalling major hurricanes are increasing in the Caribbean
The number of major Atlantic hurricanes has been increasing in recent decades (Fig. 2); warmer ocean waters because of climate change are one possible contributor. With the increase in major hurricanes has come more landfalling major hurricanes — but only outside the continental U.S. (Fig. 3).
Curiously, there has been no increase in the number of major hurricanes making landfall in the continental U.S.; favorable steering currents may be to credit (Fig. 4), as was the case during the weird 10-year “drought” in major U.S. landfalls from 2006 through 2016. We cannot presume that steering currents will remain favorable to the U.S. in the future, though. It’s also important to note that a large, powerful hurricane can still have enormous impacts even if it weakens below Category 3 strength before landfall: Such was the case with catastrophic Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy (2012), for example.
It would be valuable to present a similar set of plots for super hurricanes, since they have done a disproportionate portion of total historical hurricane damages. In NOAA’s billion-dollar disaster dataset, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes have made up only about 14% of all continental U.S. hurricane landfalls since 1980 but have been responsible for just over 50% of all hurricane damages. But since landfalls by Cat 4 and Cat 5 storms are so rare, we cannot yet draw any meaningful statistical inferences on how they might be changing.
Jamaica better positioned than some to endure a super hurricane
According to a Bloomberg story, Jamaica is better positioned to rebuild from Melissa than it would have been a decade ago, thanks to its improved fiscal situation. Damien King, executive director of the Caribbean Policy Research Institute in Kingston, told Bloomberg that the country balanced its budget, decreased its debt, and paid insurance premiums, including to the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, a multi-country fund. The fund will be giving Jamaica a record payout of about $71 million, with a likely second payment under its excess-rainfall policy. In addition, Melissa triggered Jamaica’s $150 million catastrophe bond, designed as a backstop for the most extreme weather events.
“It means that Jamaica has fiscal room to be able to manage a storm even of this magnitude,” King said.
According to a recent op-ed by Avinash Persaud, special adviser to the president of the Inter-American Development Bank on climate change, people living in Small Island Developing States around the world, from the Caribbean to the South Pacific, are highly vulnerable to climate change-enhanced shocks like Hurricane Melissa.
“These nations are the ‘canaries in the coal mine,’ signaling the dangers that lie ahead,” she wrote.
She outlined multiple paths forward: for example, new borrowing arrangements that are low-cost, long-term, and flexible. Another possibility: Setting up “debt-for-resilience swaps” to reduce the amount of debt a nation carries and using the proceeds from the reduced interest payments to finance climate adaptation efforts.
The Conversation has an excellent article about how the island of Dominica responded after suffering a catastrophic hit in 2017 by Category 5 Hurricane Maria, which killed 65 and cost about 225% of the nation’s GDP. Emily Wilkinson, one of the architects of the country’s climate resilience strategy, explains in the article, and in a 3-minute Vimeo video linked below, four critical principles on how Dominica is building back better and stronger in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria.
Bob Marley’s ‘Natural Mystic’: It could be about Hurricane Melissa and climate change
I was listening to my shuffle play songs on a drive the day before Melissa hit Jamaica, and “Natural Mystic” by Jamaican reggae great Bob Marley came up. The lyrics, eerily appropriate to Hurricane Melissa’s impact on Jamaica, gave me a chill:
There’s a natural mystic
Blowing through the air
If you listen carefully now you will hear
This could be the first trumpet
Might as well be last
Many more will have to suffer
Many more will have to die
Don’t ask me why
Things are not the way they used to be
I won’t tell no lie
One and all got to face reality now
Please donate to Hurricane Melissa relief efforts
Jamaica needs help after the devastating impact of Hurricane Melissa. Some options include: the Jamaica Red Cross, the Jamaican government’s official fundraiser, the Global Empowerment Missions’ Hurricane Melissa fund, the GlobalGiving Hurricane Melissa Relief Fund, and Water Mission. The USA Today has a list of 14 other charities active in Hurricane Melissa relief efforts. Here are some included by Matt Lanza in a post at The Eyewall:
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Read: Does the Saffir-Simpson Scale for hurricanes need a Category 6?
Bob Henson contributed to this post.
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Great Job Jeff Masters & the Team @ Yale Climate Connections Source link for sharing this story.
