The markets’ reaction to Trump hides a darker truth that puts the American economy at risk, Piper Sandler warns

Both of these are under threat as a result of President Trump’s escalating efforts to bring the Federal Reserve under his direct control, according to a new warning from investment bank Piper Sandler. “The US is moving away from free markets, limited government, and the rule of law at an astonishing pace,” the bank writes, taking aim at a range of actors beyond the president to indict a complacent Congress and even markets themselves. “We are watching the pillars of the long bull market being removed one by one,” the bank warns, adding that the crisis goes far beyond Trump’s unprecedented attempt to fire a Fed governor.

Although it did not say so explicitly, the bank took aim at American markets’ string of all-time highs, essentially warning that they will not ride to the rescue. “We do not share the investor conceit that the markets regularly ‘discipline’ politicians,” the bank notes, warning that “bond vigilantes” will not save America from the developing problem. It also argues that the crisis for the American economy goes far beyond the attempted firing of one Fed, or of central bank independence.

Uncharted waters

To start with the Fed, Piper notes that Trump has made explicit that he believes monetary policy should be his to shape, dismissing the principle of an independent Fed led by nonpartisan economists. His late-night attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook — citing obscure allegations of mortgage fraud — has now forced the courts into uncharted territory, testing whether a president can legally purge central bank officials who resist him.

Piper notes that the president can only fire a member of the Board for cause, and the mortgage fraud accusations against Cook may or may not rise to this level. The Supreme Court wrote in an opinion issued in May that the Fed is different in nature from other independent agencies, the bank said. At this point, it’s unclear whether Trump can in fact fire Cook or whether she will remain in her role while her fate is decided. Still, Piper concludes that “the judiciary is no match for Trump’s broader assault on the Fed. If the president is determined to politicize the Fed and Congress won’t stand in the way, then it is going to happen.”

While these are uncharted waters for America, they are not for countries under authoritarian regimes, even ones previously devoted to free markets and democracy. Piper does not draw any comparisons, but the recent example of Turkey is salient, where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has pursued low interest rates against rising inflation, fired central bankers who disagreed, and appointed himself the head of a sovereign wealth fund.

Markets’ repeated failures

Piper then took indirect aim at all the financial experts who argue that for all of the Trump theater, markets’ outsized returns show that business as usual is still taking place. Consider Nouriel Roubini, the often-gloomy prognosticator sometimes known as Dr. Doom, who has been uncharacteristically optimistic in recent years. For instance, he tweeted in April that the tech sector is so dynamic: “Tech Trumps Tariffs even if Mickey Mouse or a clown were to run the US! It doesn’t matter and American exceptionalism will remain and be resilient regardless of Trump given the hyper dynamism and innovations of the US private sector.”

Earlier today, Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors told Fortune‘s Eva Roytburg, “This is very positive.” He added that he was in favor of Trump’s moves on the Fed: “The simple way to say it is that eliminating Fed incompetence is far more important than defending alleged Fed independence. The Fed has always been political; it’s only Trump who talks about it in public.”

Piper allows for the fact that an “excessively loose Fed and spendthrift Congress” created the inflation wave of 2022, but then lectures markets and investors for failing to exercise any sort of discipline in their right. Certainly, it says, markets have been unable to reverse the ever-growing $37 trillion national debt and the “highest peacetime non-recessionary deficits in its history,” with the U.S. on track to surpass its record debt-to-GDP ratio.

Markets have not acted as a restraint on Trump in terms of trade, Piper argues, noting that “more than 70% of what Trump promised on Liberation Day has come to fruition.” Furthermore, it notes that Trump is doubling down, threatening just last night to impose tariffs in response to digital services taxes.

Markets’ recent rally at the prospect of rate cuts is nothing to be celebrated, Piper says, as these cuts have come from political pressure. Piper then recalls how markets were remarkably inefficient and unhelpful during capitalism’s greatest test since the Great Depression. “It didn’t see the housing bust and Great Financial Crisis coming. We find little evidence the market is forward looking or disciplines policy makers.”

Congress’ role

Meanwhile, Congress shows little inclination to resist. Few of Trump’s Fed nominees have been rejected by the Senate, despite mounting concerns over their independence. Republicans, wary of crossing Trump, have largely waved through even controversial picks. Stephen Miran is expected to be confirmed as soon as next month — and should Powell step aside when his term as chair expires, Trump will almost certainly get his preferred replacement. It would take only four Republican defections to block any nominee, but Piper Sandler noted, “we’ve seen no appetite to do so.

Perhaps most rattling for Wall Street, Piper Sandler positioned Trump’s Fed fight as merely one piece of a broader dismantling of the economic framework underpinning the long expansion of recent decades. The bank argues that “Decades of freer trade [have] been dramatically reversed overnight.” It sees “the sound money pillar” as being fundamentally compromised by Trump’s assault on the Fed, among other things. Then it lists a litany of stunning an unprecedented developments.

In the summer of 2025, it notes, we have witnessed the Republican Party, long thought to favor limited government, making unprecedented intrusions into the way business is done, including Trump’s negotiation of a government stake in Intel. Consider, the bank adds, the “overt effort to politicize the Fed, to politicize the data, an effort to jump start a sovereign wealth fund, the federal government taking big stakes in private sector companies, 15% export taxes on companies, FBI raids on critics — all at the whim of one man with no legislation or meaningful criticism from Congress.” Piper poses an implicit question: just how exceptional will America remain?