Can you believe it: The Southeastern Conference has four teams among the top 10 in College Football Playoff championship odds.
Then, two more teams are knocking on the door of the top 10, and there might be a sleeper or two in the mix, as well.
So it’s no surprise that, for SEC championship odds, bookmakers expect quite a battle to see who takes home the league crown and presumably a first-round bye in the CFP.
“The SEC feels more competitive than in past years. It used to be just Georgia and Alabama,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “There’s not a real standout team, so maybe we will get some variance this year.”
Feazel serves up his insights into how bettors are playing SEC championship odds.
Texas’ Time?
Texas has been in the SEC all of one season, but it was a pretty good one. The Longhorns reached the SEC title game, losing to Georgia 22-19, though still earning an at-large berth into the College Football Playoff.
From there, Texas knocked off Clemson and Arizona State to reach the CFP semifinals, where the Longhorns’ season ended in a 28-14 setback to eventual national champion Ohio State.
For this season, Caesars opened Texas as the +280 favorite to win the SEC, and the Longhorns are now +260. That said, Feazel remains a little wary.
“The Texas Longhorns are still new to this conference, but right now, they’re controlling most of the money,” Feazel said.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers moved on to the NFL, which fully swings open the door for Arch Manning to start. That has early bettors quite enthusiastic.
“They’re banking on Arch Manning. He’s the Heisman Trophy favorite. But is he gonna be that guy this year?” Feazel said. “He does have a high ceiling, but we don’t know how low his floor is.”
Manning got two starts last year, when Ewers was out with an oblique injury. Those starts came against two overmatched teams: Louisiana-Monroe, in a 51-3 blowout, and Mississippi State, in a 35-13 victory.
Close Behind
Georgia is the +375 second choice in SEC championship odds. As noted above, the Bulldogs won the conference title last year, getting a bye to the CFP quarterfinals.
That’s where the season ended, in a 23-10 loss to Notre Dame.
Georgia has played in the last four SEC title games and won back-to-back national crowns in 2021-22 and 2022-23. With that success, though, comes a higher calling for many players: the NFL.
“Every year, Georgia loses a lot to the draft,” Feazel said. “There are question marks around this team, whether it will have its dominant form.”
Alabama is the +400 third choice to win the SEC. But as the post-Saban era hits Year 2, bettors aren’t quite as intrigued by the Crimson Tide, who didn’t reach the SEC final or the CFP last season.
“Alabama still has its betting faithful, but there’s less action than they were getting in the Saban years,” Feazel said.
LSU is expected to be in the conference championship mix, as well, and in fact has seen its odds notably improve in the offseason. Caesars opened the Tigers at +1100, and they’re now +650.
“We have a big Louisiana betting base. That’s the case every year,” Feazel said, adding there’s plenty of belief in QB Garrett Nussmeier. “He will be one of the top quarterbacks drafted next year. The LSU faithful are coming in.”
Major Mover
Oklahoma is a +2500 long shot in odds to win the SEC, but that’s significantly better than where the Sooners opened months ago, at +6000.
Feazel and oddsmakers at other books feel Brent Venables’ squad could be an SEC dark horse.
“Oklahoma has one of the hardest schedules, but is getting really good action. More action than you’d expect on Oklahoma,” Feazel said. “The Sooners are not the dominant offensive team we’ve seen in past years. They’re trying to get that back.
“They seem to be a value play in the SEC, driving a lot of money.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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