In early 2025, as Trump began implementing his most sweeping tariff proposals, industry surveys already began to show manufacturers had concerns about the new import taxes harming their sector. Business owners warned that Trump’s tariffs would make operations more difficult and expensive, while experts warned that tariffs would not result in Trump’s promised increases in employment in the manufacturing sector. Now, one year into Trump’s second term, surveys of the manufacturing sector and new data on employment reveals a manufacturing downturn during the Trump administration.
- Respondents to the December 2025 Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index report complained that tariffs are hurting their manufacturing businesses. One chemical products manufacturer said: “It has not been a great year. We have had some success holding the line on costs; however, real consumer spending is down and tariffs are ultimately to blame.” A machinery manufacturer responded: “Trough conditions continue: depressed business activity, some seasonal but largely impacted by customer issues due to interest rates, tariffs,” and other issues. And an electrical equipment manufacturer said: “Morale is very low across manufacturing in general. The cost of living is very high, and component costs are increasing with folks citing tariffs and other price increases. … So, things look a bit bleak overall.” [Institute for Supply Management via PRNewswire, 1/5/26]
- The National Association of Manufacturers’ 2025 Q4 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey reported that “trade uncertainties remained the top business challenge at 73.1%, with 80.3% of respondents reporting they have paid tariffs on imported manufacturing inputs since the start of the year.” The report also stated: “Tariffs are impacting manufacturers of all sizes, with 72.8% small and medium-sized manufacturers with less than 500 employees paying tariffs on inputs this year—alongside 97% of large manufacturers.” [National Association of Manufacturers, 12/17/25]
- The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported on December 29: “Texas manufacturing activity dips.” One manufacturer commented: “Tariffs [remain a concern]. I feel like a broken record.” A printing manufacturer commented: “We have gotten stupid slow. … We will be shutting down the plant floor for multiple days due to lack of work. We have to believe this is a direct effect from the total lack of predictability coming from Washington and the ill-conceived idea of tariffs benefiting our economy.” [Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 12/29/25]
- The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond reported: “Fifth District manufacturing activity remained slow in December, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.” [Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, 12/23/25]
- CNBC’s latest survey with the Association for Supply Chain Management found that “rising costs associated with President Trump’s tariffs have resulted in increased layoffs and less capital for investments.” CNBC also reported that “65% of survey respondents reported at least a 10%-15% increase in their supply chain costs, and business tell CNBC that even if the Supreme Court rules IEEPA [International Emergency Economic Powers Act] tariffs illegal, refunds won’t recover many costs they have incurred.” [CNBC, 1/12/26]
- Bloomberg columnist and Cato Institute economist Scott Lincicome: “The harms to manufacturers are consistent with research on past tariff episodes and help to explain why the sector struggled in 2025 — and why things might not get much better this year. Recent forecasts also suggest caution, with manufacturers and supply chain professionals predicting continued headwinds due to the costs, uncertainty and complexity of tariffs.” Lincicome added: “Then there’s the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book of regional economic conditions and surveys from the regional Fed banks, which have repeatedly documented cases of manufacturers delaying hiring and investment amid weak market conditions, rising costs, shrinking profit margins and persistent uncertainty. As for the ‘hard’ data, manufacturing capacity and output, while incomplete, sagged through the Fall.” [Bloomberg, 1/15/26]
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