Homebuyers are quickly gaining the upper hand in many cities as once-hot housing markets cool off faster than an autumn cold snap.
Cities, states and geographic regions attract buyers for a slew of different reasons, including plentiful job opportunities, a better quality of life and more highly rated schools. There’s always a hot spot somewhere.
Take Austin, Texas, for example. During the pandemic, the city known as “the Live Music Capital of the World” became a boomtown, luring homebuyers with affordable housing and a low cost of living. So many people wanted to buy there that home prices increased by more than 30% in 2021 alone. Fast-forward to today, though, and home prices in Austin are falling. According to an analysis by Lance Lambert, co-founder and editor-in-chief at housing data company ResiClub Analytics, prices are down by nearly 6% year-over-year.
In fact, as of June, home prices were down in 110 of the 300 largest metro areas in the country, according to Lambert’s research. That’s a significant change from as recently as January, when there were only 31 metro areas with price declines. It’s not just individual cities going through the doldrums, either. It’s entire regions.
According to Lambert, some of the markets experiencing the most softness — meaning that buyers are gaining more negotiating power — are located in the Sun Belt, especially cities in the Gulf Coast and Mountain West.
“Many of these housing markets saw dramatic price appreciation during the pandemic housing boom, with home values rising much faster than local incomes,” Lambert says in written comments to Money.
The large influx of people who arrived during the pandemic brought bigger budgets and increased competition for available homes, which led to rapidly rising prices in these once-hot markets.
Rising inventory drives home prices down across U.S. markets
This scenario is particularly true of Florida. The Sunshine State was one of the hottest markets just a few years ago — nearly every city was booming — but now has seven of the top 10 cities with the largest year-over-year price drops on ResiClub’s list. Home prices in Punta Gorda are down by almost 12%, and Cape Coral is down by nearly 10%.
However, the domestic migration that was so common during the pandemic has slowed, and mortgage rates are much higher than they were back then. With fewer out-of-town buyers bringing in those bigger budgets, Lambert says that boomtown markets like Austin and Tampa are struggling as they are “increasingly dependent on local income levels to sustain elevated prices.”
Another factor resulting in declining prices in these cities is a change in the number of available homes for sale. The need for more housing to meet the heightened demand led to increased homebuilding and more inventory in those areas. As tends to happen, when supply rises, home prices stabilize or even decline a bit. According to Lambert, the newly built homes also put downward pressure on home prices because many builders offer price cuts and significant incentives to keep sales moving.
“Some buyers who may have previously chosen an existing home are now gravitating toward new builds with better affordability packages,” Lambert says.
When both factors are taken into account, the trend toward lower prices in more cities is likely to continue as inventory continues to rise and price appreciation slows. In his analysis, Lambert expects that 150 of the largest 300 metros in the country will see declining home prices by year’s end.
Home prices are still rising in other markets
While many cities are experiencing price declines, 190 markets are still seeing home price growth, according to Lambert’s analysis. Factors such as available inventory and buyer demand are key in determining which cities will keep home values elevated. Currently, all indications point to the Northeast and Midwest as the country’s current hot spots.
According to a report from Realtor.com, prices in Rockford, Illinois, jumped by about 13% year-over-year in June, while other in-demand cities, such as Manchester, New Hampshire, and Worcester, Massachusetts, saw prices increase by 6% and 5%, respectively.
These regions are still seeing home price growth because inventory remains limited and demand remains high. The lack of available land for new construction limits how much new supply can be added to the market — one of the main reasons keeping home prices moving higher.
Decreasing prices do not necessarily indicate a housing market on the verge of crashing. Home prices increased so much due to the pandemic that they would need to tumble by a lot more to cause a Great Recession-type crisis. This trend can be better thought of as a market correction than a crash, with home prices becoming increasingly in line with a healthier balance between supply and demand.
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